There’s been much weeping and gnashing of teeth over Zach Evans this offseason, at first centered around the flaws he’s purported to show on film (vision, power, etc., things I examined in this piece), more recently related to the 202 pounds he weighed at the Combine, and always with the shadow of the vaguely-defined “character concerns” that have followed him since high school looming over the conversation. Through all of that, I’ve remained staunch in my position that Evans is one of the elite runners in this class.

Perhaps that’s take-lock. After all, I acknowledge that two of the things I care about most when evaluating running back prospects are size and pass-catching chops, and with Evans’ drops problem now accompanied by a supposed size problem, how can I justify still being “in” on Evans?

For one, nothing that happened at the Combine should retroactively color our perspective on what happened on the field for three years at TCU and Ole Miss. Among the thirteen backs in this class for whom I’ve charted a significant amount of runs (75+), Evans ranks third in powering through contact from would-be tacklers, behind only Zach Charbonnet and Tiyon Evans on a scale that scores the results of physical interactions with defenders as follows:

Against linebackers specifically, Evans is in a clear top tier with those other two backs -- the class average in powering through tackle attempts from linebackers is 0.20, while Evans scores a ridiculous 0.57 (Charbonnet and Tiyon Evans tie for first with scores of 0.63). He also scores above-average against defensive linemen and in another top-three tier against defensive backs (with DeWayne McBride and Charbonnet). Overall, Evans is one of only four players in this class (at least so far, though I’ve already watched all the top guys) for whom physical encounters with would-be tacklers were more likely to result in either a broken tackle or extra yardage gained through contact than they were to result in a successful tackle attempt without extra yardage added.

Tiyon Evans is one of just a couple 2023 backs who can match the power with which Zach Evans runs.

I say all of that to say that the number on the scale at the Combine doesn’t change the fact that Evans is a tough, physical runner who enjoyed much success at powering through contact in two different Power Five conferences. Whether he plays at 215 (which is what he was listed at on the Ole Miss roster last season), 212 (his listed weight as a sophomore at TCU), 202 (the Combine weight), or something in between, the results on the field are the results on the field regardless. I’d be a little surprised if he does play at 202 given the power with which he runs, but his playing at 202 wouldn’t change that power (unless you think he played drastically heavier in college than he will in the NFL, something I don’t believe we have any reason to suspect).

In any case, Evans is an objectively powerful runner and I don’t think we should care about the Combine weigh-in as it specifically pertains to his ability on the field. Pending measurements and athletic testing at his Pro Day on March 29th, however, the weight does have a chance to alter perceptions of Evans in NFL personnel departments -- it’s also objectively true that smaller backs get less work on professional teams than do bigger backs (at least in general), so, coupled with a potentially off-putting injury history, maybe that 202 on the scale sounds the alarms in the hearts and minds of the powers that be and keeps Evans from securing either the requisite Draft capital or the requisite on-field opportunity needed to make the sort of impact at the next level that his talent would beget when considered on its own.

I’m not here to read tea leaves, though. The outside influences (Draft capital, landing spot, etc.) certainly matter, but I will not pretend to know or attempt to predict where Evans will get selected or what team he’ll end up on, and at this point in the offseason process, my aim is simply to accurately evaluate players and rank them accordingly. To that end, the biggest boon to Evans’ profile are the impressive numbers he put up as a rusher over the last three seasons:

Beyond a quality Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating that serves to dispel the notion that Evans was in some way outplayed by the other runners on his college teams, the first thing that should stand out to you here is Evans’ high-end ability to create explosive plays. Chunk Rate+ measures the difference between how often a given player ripped off 10-yard gains and how often his teammates collectively ripped off 10-yard gains, and despite playing in backfields populated by top-end talents like Quinshon Judkins and Kendre Miller, the dubiously diminutive Evans posted elite marks in that area.

Explosive run rate is already one of the most predictive metrics for running back prospects, but Evans did not stop there: he also converted those explosive runs into breakaway gains of 20 yards or more at the second-highest rate among Power Five backs in this class (Kendre Miller’s career BCR is 39.3%). Evans and Bijan Robinson are the only 2023 backs who posted career CR+ and BCR marks each above the 70th percentiles while playing in top-tier conferences, and, along with the following historical prospects (sorted by their CR+ marks), are two of just fourteen such backs to enter the NFL since 2010:

Not a bad list. In addition to creating big plays frequently, Evans was also good at simply churning out positive yards on a consistent basis. The only season of his career in which he posted a negative Relative Success Rate was his freshman campaign (when he notched a mark of -1.7%), after which he created positive outcomes 8.9% and 3.0% more often, respectively, than his talented backfield mates did in the subsequent years.

Given the numbers, it’s unclear to me where the fatal flaws in Evans’ game are supposed to have manifested. I’ll concede spotty or inconsistent, but if Evans has poor vision, how did he keep his offenses on schedule at high rates relative to such high-quality teammates? If he’s not creative or powerful or big enough, how did he generate so many explosive plays, break so many tackles, and produce so efficiently overall?

One explanation could be that Evans is a freak athlete with rare physical traits that enable him to dominate on a per-carry basis without the aid of good cerebral or technical ability. High school testing indicates that Evans may well be a freak athlete (he ran a 4.51 back then and still owns the best short-shuttle time in ESPN Recruiting’s entire database) and smarter film analysts than me do a good job of dispelling some of those misconceptions about Evans’ soft skills, but the numbers simply don’t indicate that this is the case either. Most guys who succeed in college by virtue of their physical advantages and in spite of poor mental acumen score highly on the Volatility Index, but Evans does not. Additionally, Evans scores well relative to other backs in this class in my composite film grades on both zone and gap runs, marks generated by aggregating play-level decision-making processes and completely ignoring the impact of speed, power, elusiveness, and other physical traits. As a zone runner, Evans’ net score comes out to 0.72, better than both the class average of 0.65 and the marks earned by guys like Charbonnet, Robinson, and Miller. On gap concepts, his 0.61 is well above the class mean of 0.51 and trails just three other runners in this year’s group.

I pondered earlier how I can justify being in on Evans despite the death knell combination of unreliable receiving chops and (hypothetical) undersized-ness, and I hope I’ve made the answer clear: he’s simply one of the best, most effective, and most comprehensively gifted runners in this year’s class. I don’t know what he weighs, I don’t what he runs, I don’t know the future implications of his injury history, I don’t know when he’ll get selected in the Draft, and I don’t know who he’ll play for next season, but if you’re asking me to judge players based on their ability to contribute on the field, then Evans is legit. He’s as good a runner of the football as anyone in the 2023 crop.