Following my first run-through of league-wide projections for the upcoming season, I published version 1.0 of my top-12 running backs for 2023 redraft leagues one week ago. Since then, I’ve done more research, checked my work versus the projections for some other analysts I respect, tweaked some inputs, kept some others, and extended my rankings past the RB1 tier. Informed by my projections and balanced against ADP, here are RBs 13-24 (in ascending order) in my current redraft rankings:

I’m currently assuming that Javonte Williams plays 13 games this season and goes through a bit of a ramp-up process in his first couple games back, but after that -- and even with a relatively even split between himself and Samaje Perine -- Williams projects as my RB10 on a per-game basis. A big part of that is my belief that the Denver offense is set up to target running backs heavily in 2023, as Javonte attempts to follow up a 15.6% Target Share from last season in a new-look offense that features a quarterback, offensive coordinator, and head coach who’ve all led passing games that targeted runners at at least a 20% rate in recent seasons. It’s certainly possible that Williams just isn’t quite right this year after tearing up his knee last October, but RB24 feels like an appropriate place to bet on his healthy upside.

With Zach Charbonnet added to the mix in Seattle, I’m currently projecting Kenneth Walker for a 65% share of backfield carries -- the same as for guys like Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers, and Christian McCaffrey -- and just over a 5% share of total targets, which doesn’t give him enough work to finish as an RB2 based on how the rest of the running back pool projects out for me. Still, I recognize the upside that exists for Walker if he can either earn a bit more of the receiving work than I anticipate (he had a 6.9% Target Share without much pass-catching competition last season) or hold off Charbonnet as the Seahawks’ go-to goal-line rusher, so RB23 feels like a good compromise. You probably won’t get him if this is how you value him, but I think that’s ok.

Assuming he’s not completely washed after (or amid) a multi-year tumble in per-carry efficiency, David Montgomery is set up to occupy a more receiving-heavy version of the role in this Detroit offense that saw Jamaal Williams lead the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022. It’s unlikely that he’ll run as hot at the goal-line as Williams did, but he should be a high-volume runner with enough receptions to offset a dip in Williams’ touchdown total. In a range of the running back landscape where you have to project a lot of guys to post career years in pursuit of returning value at ADP, Montgomery feels like a safe option as a known commodity who simply has to function competently in a juicy role.

I’m keeping an eye on Zach Evans as a potential party crasher in this backfield, but if Cam Akers is the guy we saw during the last half of 2022, then he’s set-up to earn a Miles Sanders-type second contract with a breakout 1000-yard rushing season in 2023. You also don’t have to project him for a huge share of work to get there, so if nobody materializes as a legitimate breather back behind him, we could be looking at a 75% opportunity share fueling Akers to a high-end RB2 season on a low-ceiling offense. My best guess is he experiences a peak Marlon Mack-style season as a set-it-and-forget-it 13 points in your flex spot.

JK Dobbins is a lot like Walker to me: I see the explosive rushing upside, but it’s hard to find a scenario in which this guy -- in Dobbins’ case, a player we’ve never seen stay healthy under the weight of a lead-back workload -- commands high enough carry volume or catches enough passes -- Dobbins hasn’t been a productive receiver in the NFL or in college -- to deliver close to RB1-level production in fantasy football. I have him posting easy career-highs in both rushing attempts and targets per game, but he projects out as my RB24 in a Ravens offense that is slated to pass the ball more than they have in any season since Dobbins was drafted at the same time that their receiving corps should leave fewer scraps to the running backs than they have in recent seasons.

Aaron Jones has yet to give us strong indications of any age-based decline, so I’m not betting on this being the year that he finally gets supplanted by AJ Dillon. Instead, I think he’ll do pretty much what he’s done for the last five seasons: produce efficiently on B-tier volume, except this time he’ll score a few fewer fantasy points per game by virtue of the Packers offense being quarterbacked by a first-year starter instead of a first-ballot Hall of Famer. RB19 is slightly ahead of where Jones actually projects out for me, but as with Montgomery, it just feels like you know exactly what you’re getting with him in drafts.

It’s difficult to project how the distribution of work in the Texans backfield will shake out with Devin Singletary now in the mix, but I currently have Dameon Pierce slated to receive 65% of total running back carries while slightly improving upon the 9% Target Share he posted as a rookie in 2022. Such a split is not a foregone conclusion, but I believe in Pierce’s talent enough to think that he can maintain a relatively high opportunity share even with more backfield competition than he saw a year ago. If that happens -- along with a slight improvement in overall offensive productivity with what should be a quarterback upgrade in going from Davis Mills to CJ Stroud -- Pierce’s weekly output could exceed the numbers put up by several of the backs being drafted ahead of him.

I don’t even like Rachaad White, but there’s almost no way around projecting him for at least mid-level RB2 numbers given the current lay of the land in the Buccaneers backfield. If he sucks really bad (which he might), then it’s possible that someone emerges from either this depth chart or the free agent pool to significantly lighten his load, but if White isn’t as terrible a runner as the 3.7 yards he averaged on a per-carry basis last season would indicate, then he could flirt with an RB1 finish on the basis of dominating touches alone. I don’t want to be the Rachaad White guy, but his current ADP is just too low given the importance of volume in fantasy in combination with the complete lack of competition that exists in the Tampa Bay running back room.

James Conner is also being drafted too low. We don’t have to fudge the run/pass splits too much -- even though it would make sense to with Kyler Murray presumably out for at least part of the season -- to end up with a Cardinals offense that runs the ball at some of the highest rates in the league (new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is a Kevin Stefanski protege who served on recent Browns and Vikings staffs that consistently architected high-volume rushing attacks), and with Keaontay Ingram and his unimpressive rookie season representing the biggest threat to opportunity, Conner seems lined up for a sizable workload in 2023. He has to stay healthy, of course, but 17 games’ worth of Conner carries more scoring potential than the same for most guys currently being drafted as RB2s.

Travis Etienne is like if Walker and Dobbins’ outlooks were just a little better; I envision the Jaguars attempting to insert Tank Bigsby as a pass-catching back, but Etienne -- while a mediocre receiving in his own right -- should retain his fair share of that role considering that Bigsby is also not well-suited for it, and the former Clemson runner is easier to bet on for a high carry share given that he ran like one of the most dynamic backs in the league last season. I have him improving upon a quality 2022 fueled mostly by a regression to the mean in touchdown rate, but the near-elite ceiling that some envision for him is out of reach unless Bigsby ends up being completely undeserving of legitimate breather-back touches.

Joe Mixon is like if White was more entrenched in a high-volume role and was playing on an explosive offense: he’s probably not that good at this point in his career, but he’s going to get a high share of the between-the-20s carries, he’s going to be the primary goal-line back, and he’s going to catch 3-5 passes per game. He actually projects out as my RB11, but I’d rather bet on the youthful upside of Rhamondre Stevenson or Jahmyr Gibbs than tether my fantasy season to Mixon not unraveling as a 27-year old who’s already had difficulty averaging even four yards per carry in recent seasons. I could be convinced to take Etienne over him as well, but the Bengals offense is going to produce enough scoring opportunities that I wouldn’t let Mixon fall past the RB15 range.

The addition of Tyjae Spears to the Titans backfield means that Derrick Henry won’t be able to improve upon the career-high receiving numbers he posted last season, and Tennessee’s offensive line probably won’t provide enough help to vault him out of the sub-4.5 yards per carry range he’s been in for the last two years. Another 300-carry workload will keep him right in contention for another top-12 finish, though, and I wouldn’t fault you for taking him closer to his RB8 ADP considering the greater level of projection that must be done in order to buy into Breece Hall, Gibbs, or Najee Harris in that range.