2024 RB Class: Pass-Catching Primer
2024 RB Class: Pass-Catching Primer
Most of my work in evaluating running backs centers around their ability to run the football, because, well, most of the job of a running back is centered around running the football. They also do other things, though, and today I want to focus on perhaps the next-most consequential of their responsibilities: running routes and catching passes (though we shouldn’t forget that pass-blocking is just as important in many cases).
There’s a decent chance that my longwindedness will get the better of me, but my intention is for this article to serve more as a data dump useful for future reference (both for myself as well as for readers to self-reference in the meantime between now and my getting around to further analyzing these things in future articles) than as a prose-heavy think piece like much of my other stuff. The data being dumped will be of several varieties: simple, volume-based statistics like receptions, receptions per game, and Target Share; various efficiency metrics (yards per reception, yards per target, YAC per reception); and usage indicators like aDOT, positional alignment data, and – unique to this website and my own methodology – measurements of Route Diversity and Route-Adjusted Target Earnings that contextualize the receiving production and efficiency of running backs in ways that exceed the scope of traditional, route-blind metrics in their ability to inform our understanding of players’ receiving skill-sets (rather than simply their receiving results).
Let’s start with the most basic of data-dork fixations:
Volume and Size of Receiving Role
First |
Last |
Total Rec |
Rec / Game |
Target Share |
Satellite Score |
Rasheen |
Ali |
74 |
2.18 |
11.4% |
25.2 |
Braelon |
Allen |
49 |
1.40 |
7.6% |
19.7 |
Emani |
Bailey |
47 |
1.12 |
5.1% |
37.3 |
Trey |
Benson |
33 |
0.92 |
5.7% |
18.7 |
Jonathon |
Brooks |
28 |
1.33 |
7.8% |
18.4 |
Blake |
Corum |
56 |
1.24 |
9.2% |
27.2 |
Isaiah |
Davis |
53 |
1.15 |
8.7% |
24.8 |
Ray |
Davis |
93 |
2.11 |
11.0% |
31.2 |
Daijun |
Edwards |
37 |
0.73 |
6.1% |
24.6 |
Audric |
Estime |
26 |
0.70 |
5.6% |
10.1 |
Frank |
Gore Jr. |
75 |
1.60 |
9.9% |
24.6 |
Isaac |
Guerendo |
42 |
1.14 |
6.6% |
41.7 |
George |
Holani |
88 |
1.83 |
9.4% |
36.0 |
Bucky |
Irving |
95 |
2.44 |
12.5% |
47.1 |
Dillon |
Johnson |
173 |
3.53 |
10.8% |
55.8 |
Jawhar |
Jordan |
39 |
1.03 |
6.6% |
28.3 |
MarShawn |
Lloyd |
34 |
1.06 |
9.5% |
32.8 |
Jase |
McClellan |
40 |
0.93 |
6.3% |
22.0 |
Kendall |
Milton |
12 |
0.29 |
1.4% |
12.7 |
Keilan |
Robinson |
35 |
0.78 |
5.4% |
47.1 |
Cody |
Schrader |
40 |
1.54 |
7.1% |
28.7 |
Will |
Shipley |
85 |
2.36 |
9.4% |
37.4 |
Carson |
Steele |
58 |
1.57 |
7.7% |
21.4 |
Tyrone |
Tracy Jr. |
113 |
1.92 |
15.8% |
127.7 |
Kimani |
Vidal |
92 |
1.92 |
8.8% |
31.4 |
Blake |
Watson |
112 |
2.43 |
12.9% |
32.1 |
Michael |
Wiley |
125 |
2.55 |
10.9% |
65.5 |
Miyan |
Williams |
18 |
0.58 |
2.9% |
21.8 |
Jaylen |
Wright |
30 |
0.88 |
6.6% |
21.9 |
Target Share here refers to a player’s career-high mark, while Satellite Score is a metric that contextualizes a player’s Target Share (over the course of his career) with his Dominator Rating; higher isn’t necessarily “better” in this case, but simply indicates that a player’s overall role in his particular offense skewed toward receiving contributions. That provides insight from a couple different angles. For one, it can help differentiate between Target Shares that would seem to indicate equivalent receiving acumen; Jonathan Taylor and Chris Thompson both left school with career-high Target Share marks of 10.5%, but that number produced a Satellite Score of 59.6 in the case of Thompson and a 17.4 in the case of Taylor (this suggests that Taylor was involved in the passing game mostly by virtue of his simply being a big part of the offense in general, while Thompson’s receiving production was a fundamental part of his contributions). Along similar lines, the metric can illuminate players whose Target Shares over- or under-represent their receiving abilities; James Cook’s career-high Target Share at Georgia was 7.8%, a 39th-percentile mark that produced – in light of his small-ish role in the offense overall – a 92nd-percentile Satellite Score of 56.2.
Let’s bullet-point some quick notes and analysis based on the above numbers:
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As a member of the same kind of Air Raid offensive attacks that saw James Williams and Max Borghi post gaudy receiving numbers at Washington State (RIP to Mike Leach), Dillon Johnson was a receptions machine during his three years at Mississippi State. He caught a much more normal amount of passes (24) last season at Washington.
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The only recent draftees in my post-2006 database of running back prospects who left school with higher Satellite Score than the 127.7 that Tyrone Tracy posted over six years with Iowa and Purdue are Ty Montgomery and Tony Pollard. Along with Tracy, both of those guys spent most (or all, in the case of Montgomery) of their college careers as wide receivers.
-
On the other end of the spectrum, the marks posted by Audric Estime and Kendall Milton in that category are down in Ronald Jones and Alfred Morris territory.
-
Several of the most prominent backs in this class are not entering the league with extensive pass-catching resumes: Trey Benson, Jonathon Brooks, Estime, MarShawn Lloyd, and Jaylen Wright all left college with fewer than 40 career receptions. Lloyd is the only one of them with an above-average Satellite Score.
Now onto more interesting considerations: not how much, but how were these backs used by their teams in the receiving game? While the classic caveats – “it’s not that he can’t do it, he just wasn’t asked to” – certainly apply in some instances, the positional alignment, target distance, and route inventory of these backs can give us an excellent view into how their coaching staffs believed they might best impact defenses in the passing game. Guys who regularly line up out wide or in the slot, or who get targeted downfield, or who run a wide variety of different route types, typically don’t get to do those things by accident.
Versatility and Usage
First |
Last |
aDot |
Slot/Wide % |
Basic Route % |
Route Diversity |
Rasheen |
Ali |
-0.3 |
8.7% |
77.4% |
9.63 |
Braelon |
Allen |
-1.0 |
4.1% |
69.5% |
7.84 |
Emani |
Bailey |
0.3 |
17.1% |
69.0% |
8.19 |
Trey |
Benson |
0.5 |
9.3% |
64.7% |
9.18 |
Jonathon |
Brooks |
-1.4 |
9.9% |
69.8% |
8.48 |
Blake |
Corum |
-0.1 |
17.4% |
60.3% |
7.99 |
Ray |
Davis |
0.0 |
7.3% |
73.6% |
8.84 |
Daijun |
Edwards |
0.8 |
10.2% |
82.0% |
10.26 |
Audric |
Estime |
-0.6 |
4.3% |
67.5% |
8.15 |
Frank |
Gore Jr. |
0.4 |
7.0% |
69.5% |
8.36 |
Isaac |
Guerendo |
0.3 |
8.5% |
74.4% |
9.51 |
George |
Holani |
-0.1 |
11.0% |
65.9% |
7.78 |
Bucky |
Irving |
-1.0 |
26.4% |
55.3% |
8.16 |
Dillon |
Johnson |
-1.4 |
7.7% |
83.1% |
12.66 |
Jawhar |
Jordan |
0.3 |
8.4% |
78.8% |
10.83 |
MarShawn |
Lloyd |
1.0 |
13.4% |
62.9% |
8.49 |
Jase |
McClellan |
1.4 |
10.7% |
67.9% |
9.32 |
Kendall |
Milton |
-0.2 |
3.4% |
87.8% |
11.56 |
Keilan |
Robinson |
-0.6 |
46.3% |
69.3% |
10.37 |
Cody |
Schrader |
1.8 |
15.7% |
65.8% |
8.52 |
Will |
Shipley |
-0.2 |
12.2% |
67.9% |
7.90 |
Carson |
Steele |
0.8 |
7.5% |
68.0% |
8.98 |
Tyrone |
Tracy Jr. |
7.4 |
84.6% |
70.6% |
11.32 |
Kimani |
Vidal |
-1.1 |
9.1% |
68.6% |
8.80 |
Blake |
Watson |
-0.5 |
9.0% |
71.4% |
8.73 |
Michael |
Wiley |
0.9 |
17.3% |
67.0% |
8.86 |
Miyan |
Williams |
0.4 |
6.3% |
75.5% |
12.59 |
Jaylen |
Wright |
-1.9 |
9.1% |
87.1% |
14.93 |
I’ll quickly define a few of these metrics and then move on to more notes and analysis. Basic route percentage refers to the portion of a player’s total routes run (over the course of his entire career) that were made up of basic route types: screens, flat routes, swing routes, and the like. Guys with higher numbers in this category are often your screen merchants and checkdown funnels, while those with lower numbers were being asked to do advanced stuff much more often. Route Diversity is a closely-related metric that measures the overall variety of a player’s route inventory, essentially indicating levels of versatility (as opposed to one-trick-pony-ness). These statistics use charting data from Sports Info Solutions. Here are some quick thoughts:
-
Jaylen Wright was asked to master very few route concepts at Tennessee. Of his 25 targets in 2023, 17 came on screens and only one came on something I categorize as an “advanced” route type (it was an out route).
-
There are quite a few backs in this class who posted relatively high Route Diversity marks while at school, including several you probably wouldn’t have expected that from. Particularly in the 2022 season, Braelon Allen was deployed all over the running back route tree: he ran higher-than-average rates of out, dig, wheel, drag, and slant routes that year. Similar things were true of Blake Corum back in 2021, though the variety in his receiving role was scaled back considerably in the next two seasons (and we know this wasn’t simply the result of a shift in offensive philosophy given how diverse Donovan Edwards’ receiving role was in those seasons).
-
Trey Benson’s Route Diversity perhaps undersells his versatility in the passing game: he received heavy usage on both wheel routes and angle routes (two of the most valuable route types – based on yards per route run data– on the running back tree) during his two seasons at Florida State.
-
Bucky Irving (and to a somewhat lesser extent, MarShawn Lloyd) looks like a weapon through this lens. He hauled in 17 passes on advanced route types in the last two years, and his career rate of basic routes is right in line with those of Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson (both at 55.2%).
-
Here we see Dillon Johnson looking much less impressive than he does through a volume-only perspective. He was a checkdown machine at Mississippi State.
Now that we know where these players lined up and the general sorts of routes they ran, let’s examine how successful they were at earning targets on those routes. Route-Adjusted Target Earnings is a metric that indicates – relative to nation-wide targets per route run data unique to each route type – how frequently a player was being targeted given the unique makeup of his individual route tree. Marks above 100% indicate a player was being targeted x% more often than expected on a per-route basis, and vice-versa for marks below 100%.
It’s worth keeping in mind that these numbers can have just as much to do with offensive scheme, surrounding skill-position talent, and quarterback tendencies as they do with the skill of the running back running the routes, especially in the case of basic route types (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels probably aren’t looking to dump it off in the flats very frequently). Still, guys who are targeted more often than the national average – especially on advanced routes – are probably doing something to earn those targets at high per-route rate. By contrast, it often makes sense to be skeptical of backs who – nearly regardless of their raw volume numbers – are being targeted far below the national per-route averages.
Earning Targets
First |
Last |
RATE |
Basic RATE |
Advanced RATE |
Rasheen |
Ali |
126.4% |
114.3% |
149.9% |
Braelon |
Allen |
88.0% |
99.6% |
28.2% |
Emani |
Bailey |
83.9% |
87.6% |
39.1% |
Trey |
Benson |
104.4% |
67.0% |
164.2% |
Jonathon |
Brooks |
118.6% |
93.4% |
170.1% |
Blake |
Corum |
86.0% |
72.7% |
89.9% |
Ray |
Davis |
84.8% |
74.6% |
99.6% |
Daijun |
Edwards |
101.4% |
96.0% |
83.0% |
Audric |
Estime |
80.9% |
77.0% |
64.4% |
Frank |
Gore Jr. |
111.7% |
105.7% |
88.1% |
Isaac |
Guerendo |
110.8% |
108.0% |
76.0% |
George |
Holani |
89.0% |
85.4% |
67.0% |
Bucky |
Irving |
125.0% |
123.4% |
94.7% |
Dillon |
Johnson |
138.0% |
142.0% |
62.4% |
Jawhar |
Jordan |
81.3% |
68.3% |
132.5% |
MarShawn |
Lloyd |
88.8% |
84.5% |
73.2% |
Jase |
McClellan |
74.4% |
70.3% |
57.0% |
Kendall |
Milton |
41.1% |
33.2% |
120.5% |
Keilan |
Robinson |
122.4% |
96.3% |
163.9% |
Cody |
Schrader |
87.2% |
84.2% |
65.2% |
Will |
Shipley |
78.4% |
64.6% |
96.1% |
Carson |
Steele |
92.3% |
81.8% |
100.7% |
Tyrone |
Tracy Jr. |
97.1% |
87.6% |
75.8% |
Kimani |
Vidal |
78.2% |
83.8% |
29.1% |
Blake |
Watson |
95.6% |
98.9% |
55.4% |
Michael |
Wiley |
127.5% |
114.5% |
130.8% |
Miyan |
Williams |
71.8% |
61.3% |
107.0% |
Jaylen |
Wright |
84.7% |
76.6% |
67.6% |
I don’t think these numbers beg further explanation, so I’ll jump right into the notes and analysis:
-
Here we find some of our surprisingly-high Route Diversity types falling back to earth a bit. Braelon Allen could hardly buy a target on a downfield route at Wisconsin, while Corum and Estime also do not stand out positively in this area.
-
Trey Benson was all but ignored by Jordan Travis near the line of scrimmage, but he was getting open and getting the ball as a result on more advanced stuff.
-
More fuel on the “Dillon Johnson’s receiving volume is fake news” fire. More fuel also on the “we don’t really have much evidence that Jaylen Wright can do anything other than stand in the flat and catch a dump-off” fire.
-
Hello, Michael Wiley. I haven’t mentioned him at all yet, but his numbers in each of the categories we’ve looked at are really nice. He seems like a candidate for Dare Ogunbowale-type satellite back stuff at the next level (and maybe I’m selling him short).
-
Jonathon Brooks’ combination of Route Diversity and high RATE on advanced routes is very sexy.
Lastly, let’s take a look at simple measures of efficiency; who catches the ball cleanly, who gains yards at positive rates, and who makes things happen after the catch:
Efficiency
First |
Last |
True Catch Rate |
True YPT |
Yards / Rec |
YAC / Rec |
Rasheen |
Ali |
88.1% |
6.7 |
7.5 |
9.1 |
Braelon |
Allen |
87.5% |
4.9 |
5.6 |
7.0 |
Emani |
Bailey |
94.0% |
7.2 |
8.1 |
7.8 |
Trey |
Benson |
86.8% |
9.7 |
11.3 |
11.9 |
Jonathon |
Brooks |
90.3% |
10.8 |
11.9 |
14.1 |
Blake |
Corum |
90.3% |
6.6 |
7.4 |
8.3 |
Ray |
Davis |
88.6% |
7.2 |
8.2 |
9.5 |
Daijun |
Edwards |
88.1% |
8.2 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
Audric |
Estime |
100.0% |
10.7 |
10.7 |
11.3 |
Frank |
Gore Jr. |
91.5% |
8.4 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
Isaac |
Guerendo |
93.3% |
8.0 |
8.5 |
8.2 |
George |
Holani |
93.6% |
8.3 |
8.8 |
10.0 |
Bucky |
Irving |
91.3% |
7.6 |
8.1 |
9.6 |
Dillon |
Johnson |
95.1% |
5.9 |
6.1 |
7.5 |
Jawhar |
Jordan |
95.1% |
11.6 |
12.2 |
13.1 |
MarShawn |
Lloyd |
81.0% |
11.3 |
13.2 |
13.2 |
Jase |
McClellan |
90.9% |
9.3 |
10.5 |
9.9 |
Kendall |
Milton |
85.7% |
8.3 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
Keilan |
Robinson |
89.7% |
8.5 |
9.5 |
11.0 |
Cody |
Schrader |
87.0% |
7.1 |
8.3 |
7.2 |
Will |
Shipley |
86.7% |
6.1 |
7.0 |
8.6 |
Carson |
Steele |
89.2% |
7.5 |
8.4 |
8.1 |
Tyrone |
Tracy Jr. |
79.0% |
8.3 |
10.6 |
6.3 |
Kimani |
Vidal |
92.0% |
7.0 |
7.6 |
9.1 |
Blake |
Watson |
93.3% |
7.7 |
8.3 |
9.3 |
Michael |
Wiley |
89.9% |
8.5 |
9.4 |
9.8 |
Miyan |
Williams |
81.8% |
6.5 |
7.9 |
7.2 |
Jaylen |
Wright |
96.8% |
5.5 |
5.7 |
7.4 |
“True” Catch Rate here refers only to a player’s catch percentage on targets that Sports Info Solutions deemed catchable, and “true” yards per target considers a player’s total receiving yards divided by his total catchable targets. Our last batch of notes:
-
Wisconsin tried to shoehorn Braelon Allen into a receiving role during his last few seasons, but he really didn’t do much with it (even after the catch).
-
Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson both have decent claims to being the best pass-catching running backs in this class, at least outside the Blake Watson and Bucky Irving types who profile more exclusively in those roles at the next level.
-
People like to throw around the “it’s not that he can’t be a good receiver, he just wasn’t asked to do it” thing with pretty much any running back they otherwise like, but that sort of excuse should really only be applied to guys whose underlying metrics speak to a greater ability than their volume numbers suggest; in this class, that guy is Audric Estime.
-
More volume-shrouded mediocrity from Dillon Johnson.
-
Will Shipley looks surprisingly bad in this area (or maybe it’s not much of a surprise), but there’s a chance that – as with De’Von Achane at Texas A&M in 2022 – the Clemson offense was dysfunctional enough that his poor efficiency might not have been completely his fault.
-
It’s also curious – considering his excellent rushing efficiency and the fact that the majority of his targets came on the basic, out-in-space type targets that are conducive to easy-money YAC – that Jaylen Wright’s numbers are so low here.
-
I’ll be curious to see what Matt Waldman has to say about MarShawn Lloyd’s catch-point technique. His advanced usage and high aDOT from his time with USC would explain a low catch rate, but he also dropped five passes across two seasons at South Carolina (nearly one for every five catchable targets).
-
Keilan Robinson, George Holani, and Frank Gore Jr. deserve shoutouts as sneaky good receivers in general.