Abu Sama is good (and other lessons from week thirteen in CFB)
Abu Sama is good (and other lessons from week thirteen in CFB)
Nov 29, 2023

The college football regular season is now over, making this probably the second-to-last recap piece of the year. With over 60 running backs covered -- including some of the biggest performances of the entire season -- we are going out with a bang:

Abu Sama seems good.

Iowa State’s three-star freshman absolutely exploded against Kansas State, turning 16 carries into 276 yards and three touchdowns in the snow and in his first career game with double-digit touches. This tackle-breaking touchdown was one of three 60+ yard scores from Sama on the day:

He was averaging nearly six yards per carry before Saturday’s game, but after it, his 8.47-yard average stands as the single best among all Power Five backs with at least 50 attempts this season. All of a sudden, Sama is a pretty interesting NFL prospect. The 17.2% Dominator Rating he currently has would be a 67th-percentile mark among the freshman seasons of historical draftees, and there are virtually no obstacles to his dominating the Cyclone backfield for the next two years. If that happens, Sama will be a 21+ MPH guy with three seasons of production at a Power Five school that has had multiple running backs selected on day two of the NFL Draft in the last few years. Sounds good to me, especially if he gets up around the 210-pound mark (he’s currently on pace to weigh around 205 at his eventual Combine).

My estimation of the Doak Walker Award selection committee just fuckin’ plummeted.

Peny Boone, Ashton Jeanty, Devin Neal, and Jaydn Ott could have legitimate beefs as well, but Audric Estime is a 1300-yard rusher with 18 touchdowns as the offensive centerpiece for a top-25 team and was not named even a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award. He did rank 13th in the nation in rushing when those semifinalists were announced, but it’s pretty silly that such a decision had to be made before the regular season was even up, a reality that screwed Estime in particular considering that he had the best game of his career on Saturday. The 238 yards he gained on the ground launched him into eighth place on the national rushing leaderboard and ended up as the third-highest total in Notre Dame history, and it could have been more if the game had been competitive. Estime’s four touchdowns meant he had single-handedly outscored Stanford 24-16 before the third quarter had even ended, but the blowout resulted in his not touching the ball for the last 15 minutes of the game.

Neal had a good game of his own, going for 106 yards and two scores on just ten carries versus Cincinnati. He showed impressive patience on this wildcat touchdown:

Boone posted his second-highest rushing total of the season with 186 yards and two touchdowns against Central Michigan this weekend. He has a 190.5% Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating, a 16.0% Relative Success Rate, and the highest raw per-carry average of any 100+ carry back in the Group of Five conferences.

Ott went just 21-for-80 on the ground, but he did take this kickoff back for a score against UCLA:

The one true king.

Ollie Gordon will and should win the Doak Walker Award. He gained 176 yards on 38 touches against BYU on Saturday, scoring five touchdowns after halftime that included two in overtime. After blowing by Omarion Hampton this weekend (who went just 9-for-28 against NC State), Gordon has more rushing yards and a higher Dominator Rating than any other back in the country (among guys who’ve played at least half the season).

Big games from upcoming rookies:

Ray Davis smacked Louisville around this weekend, going 14-76-1 on the ground and adding four receptions for another 51 yards and two scores:

He has a 5.2% RSR and is the only back in the country with more than five receiving touchdowns.

On the other side of the Abu Sama explosion was DJ Giddens, who turned 31 carries into 114 yards and a score. He’s now strung together three straight 100-yard rushing games to give him over 1000 on the year. He and Bucky Irving are the only Power Five runners who have at least a 10.0% Target Share and are forcing at least 0.30 missed tackles per rushing attempt.

Braelon Allen finished his regular season (and maybe his career) with a 165-yard, two-score rushing performance on 26 attempts versus Minnesota. If that was his last game, he’ll leave Wisconsin with the ninth-most rushing yards in school history (and the second-most among three-year players).

Cody Schrader has been on a tear lately, and he notched his fifth-straight 100-yard rushing game with a season-high 217 and a score on 27 attempts versus Arkansas. If Gordon doesn’t get the Doak it should probably go to Schrader, who is easily the leading rusher among players from top-ten teams.

Emani Bailey crossed the 1200-yard mark with a 21-150-1 rushing line on top of 4-24-1 through the air against Oklahoma. Despite the quality seasons being had by Gordon, Neal, Giddens, Jonathon Brooks, Tahj Brooks, and more, Bailey’s combination of a 159.5% BAE Rating and a 5.9% RSR is unmatched by 100+ carry rushers in the Big 12.

Florida State’s post-Jordan Travis injury hopes probably depend on Trey Benson going nuclear on the ground, something he got off to a good start on by turning 18 carries into 95 yards and scoring three times against Florida on Saturday. He navigated traffic through the first and second levels of the defense remarkably well on this dagger touchdown:

Montrell Johnson went 18-for-107 and punched in a five-yard score in the game.

Kendall Milton had the best game of his career this weekend, turning 18 attempts into 156 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Georgia Tech. He’s never been super productive in the timeshare backfield he’s been a part of at Georgia, but Milton posted a 151.9% BAE Rating last season and has been rock solid this year, with above-baseline numbers in BAE Rating and RSR to go with yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, 10-yard run rate, and raw yards per carry marks all above the 70th percentile among nationwide runners. 349 of his 644 yards have come in the last three weeks, giving him the second-highest total in the SEC during that span (behind Cody Schrader’s 570).

It was another grind-it-out day from an efficiency perspective, but Blake Corum went 22-88-2 and was a big part of Michigan’s victory over Ohio State. He looked like vintage Corum on this go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter:

Donovan Edwards turned 12 touches into 36 yards on the day, while TreVeyon Henderson managed 79 yards and a score on his 22 touches.

RJ Harvey continued his excellent senior season by turning 21 carries into 136 yards and two touchdowns in a bowl eligibility-clinching win over Houston. He hasn’t caught a ton of passes this year, but he’s been excellent on the ground and has the highest per-reception average of all Power Five backs with at least 15 catches.

The Sun Devils got blown out, but Cam Skattebo went over the 1000 yards from scrimmage threshold by going 17-108-1 against Arizona on Saturday. He ends his season with a 100.7% BAE Rating and an excellent 0.34 missed tackles forced per attempt. Word on the street is he’s coming back to school.

Neither Isiah Pacheco nor Gus Edwards ever ran for 1000 yards in a single season at Rutgers, but Kyle Monangai has. The 118 yards he gained on 20 attempts against Maryland this weekend put him over the edge and made him the Big Ten’s regular season rushing leader.

Bhayshul Tuten had a massive game in Virginia Tech’s win over Virginia, as he added a 94-yard kickoff return score to a 16-117-1 line on the ground:

I’m not sure if he’ll declare or not, but Tuten is a pretty unique prospect. He’ll speculatively approach 210 pounds and has the third-most receiving yards of any ACC running back this season, but his 0.39 missed tackles forced per attempt and 15.9% RSR add some two-down thumper flare to his profile.

Henry Parrish ended his regular season with a 11-111-2 line against Boston College that included a few very nice runs (see 1, 2, and the following):

Parrish has shared touches all season but has been the most efficient of a talented running back group, with a 7.1% RSR to go with a 121.0% BAE Rating. Mark Fletcher went 12-44-1 in the game.

Roman Hemby gained over 100 rushing yards against a Power Five opponent for the first time this season on Saturday, going for 113 yards on 15 carries in addition to 14 yards and a score on five receptions.

Small school recap:

We’ll start with the biggest Group of Five rushing day of the week, with 233 yards and a touchdown on 31 attempts coming from Jacory Croskey-Merritt in a double overtime loss to Utah State. The man they call Bill has excellent team-relative and through-contact numbers and is suddenly the leading rusher in the Mountain West.

The next-highest scrimmage yardage total posted by a G5 runner in week thirteen was 225, as Ashton Jeanty went 14-107-1 on the ground and 5-118-1 through the air. This is fantastic stuff in the open field:

Jeanty finished the regular season with the second-highest Dominator Rating in the country (among backs who played at least half the year) and -- despite missing multiple games with injury -- as the only player at the FBS level with at least 1000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards.

Let’s just go in order of scrimmage yards then. After the aforementioned Peny Boone, we have Malik Sherrod and his 182-yard, two-score performance on 20 touches versus San Diego State. He made like four men miss on this long touchdown:

Makhi Hughes turned 26 carries into 166 yards and a score against UTSA this weekend. He has a ridiculous 20.0% RSR and is the fifth-leading rusher among backs on top-25 teams.

Kairee Robinson managed 165 yards on his 16 attempts versus UNLV on Saturday, breaking San Jose State’s single-season touchdown record along the way. He clearly wanted it:

Jermaine Brown ends his season (and I believe his career) with an excellent performance in a loss to North Texas, going 18-116-2 on the ground while adding a 47-yard reception. He is one of just three backs in the country -- along with Jeanty and Blake Watson -- with 800 or more rushing yards and 400 or more receiving yards. Redshirt freshman Lee Beebe turned nine touches into 140 yards and two scores in the game. He’s listed at 5’11 and 210 pounds and posted a 118.1% BAE Rating to go with a 17.6% RSR this season, things that make him a very interesting player going into next year.

Rahjai Harris notched the second-highest single-game rushing mark of his career with 145 and a score on 21 carries versus Tulsa this weekend. It’s been a slog of a season for Harris otherwise, as he entered the game with a previous high of just 64 rushing yards and seasonal marks in missed tackles forced and yards after contact per attempt -- 0.32 and 2.56, respectively -- that indicate he’s been breaking a bunch of tackles but not going anywhere afterwards.

As has been the theme of his entire season, Frank Gore Jr. bounced back from a ho-hum performance from last week to go for 154 yards from scrimmage and a score on 18 touches versus Troy on Saturday. It seems likely that his college career is over, which would mean he went over the 4000 career rushing yards mark in his final game.

Marquez Cooper recently went over the 4000 career scrimmage yards mark, and he turned 31 attempts into 136 yards in a loss to Miami of Ohio this week. It sounds like he’s coming back next year.

Sieh Bangura notched his second straight game over 120 rushing yards with 23-121-1 against Akron. He is forcing the fewest missed tackles per attempt -- 0.08 -- of any 800+ yard rusher this season (Blake Corum is next at 0.10 -- yikes).

In the same game in which Jermaine Brown and Lee Beebe combined for 217 rushing yards for UAB, Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway totaled 245 on 18 carries apiece for North Texas. Adeyi gained 132 and scored two touchdowns while Adaway ran for a scoreless 113 yards. Adeyi was easily the more efficient of the two backs this season, but they each averaged more than six yards on 120+ attempts.

Kanye Roberts’ presence was a present for Appalachian State this weekend, as he went for 136 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches in a blowout victory over Georgia Southern. He has far outperformed fourth-year man Nate Noel on a per-carry basis this season after having posted a 123.9% BAE Rating and a 10.9% RSR on limited work last year.

Blake Watson notched his eighth 100-scrimmage yards day of the season by going 15-95-1 on the ground and 4-39-1 through the air against Temple on Friday. He is the nation’s only running back with 50 or more receptions and has a BAE Rating of 118.2%.

Samson Evans posted his first 100-yard rushing game of the year against Buffalo last Tuesday, turning 22 attempts into 127 yards and a touchdown. He’s not having a great year from an efficiency standpoint, but he has scored nearly half of Eastern Michigan’s 27 touchdowns.

Anthony Watkins’ 18-106 line against East Carolina made it two straight and three of his last four with 100+ yards on the ground. He finished his season with just a 4.51-yard per-carry average despite seeing light boxes (6.35 average defenders, a mark in the 31st percentile) in a G5 conference.

Ismail Mahdi turned 24 touches into 124 yards and a score in Saturday’s victory over South Alabama. His efficiency numbers have cooled a bit after a mega-hot start but still ended the regular season with 6.08 yards per carry and a 113.2% BAE Rating to go with the most all-purpose yards in the country.

Rahsul Faison bounced back from a one-yard performance from last week with a 18-106-1 line in a double-overtime win over New Mexico. He’s been pretty solid on a per-carry basis this year, with a 6.56-yard average to go with marks above the 85th percentile in both yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt.

A 28-0 halftime lead meant Rasheen Ali didn’t touch the ball in the second half of Marshall’s win over Arkansas State on Saturday, opening the door for Ethan Payne to turn his 19 attempts into a career-high 113 yards. Payne has represented a huge drop-off from Ali’s contributions in his breather-back role this season, as he’s averaging 1.01 fewer yards per carry and has succeeded on 13.3% fewer of his attempts.

Gavin Williams also posted a career-high in rushing this week, with 103 yards on 17 carries alongside Antario Brown’s 11-89-1 against Kent State. Brown had this slick wildcat touchdown in the game:

Elijah Davis is a freshman at Louisiana who entered the regular season finale with just 13 rushing attempts on the year, but he turned 14 carries into 109 yards and two scores against UL-Monroe on Saturday. He hasn’t been super efficient in limited work, but he has a 9.1% RSR and impressive tackle-breaking metrics.

Camryn Edwards ended his season with the second 100-yard rushing day of his career by going 19-102-2 against UMass.

Finally, Quinton Cooley did not have a big yardage day but scored three touchdowns against UTEP. The 83 yards he gained on 13 attempts brings his season-long total to an 11th-ranking 1254, and he currently has a 118.5% BAE Rating after having posted a 120.8% mark as a timeshare runner at Wake Forest in 2022.

Non-draft eligibles:

A week after CJ Baxter ran for over 100 yards on 20 attempts in Texas’ first game since Jonathon Brooks got hurt, it was Jaydon Blue who led the Longhorns’ backfield in touches and production on Saturday. The sophomore went 10-121-1 on the ground against Texas Tech, more efficient output than Baxter’s 9-45 even if we ignore this 69-yard score:

Blue has been the team’s RB3 all year but is averaging nearly two yards per carry greater than Baxter, so it will be very interesting to see how both the postseason and spring ball shake out for these guys.

This column’s favorite pair of backfield teammates are the boys from State College, who had easily their best combined game of the season against Michigan State this weekend. Kaytron Allen turned 18 touches into 154 yards, a stat-line that includes the longest run of Penn State’s season:

Nick Singleton looked as good as he has all year, with 18-118-1 on the ground in addition to some explosive contributions in the passing game:

Jordan Nubin finished out the season for Minnesota’s revolving door of a backfield with a 119-scrimmage yard performance against Wisconsin. We never saw Darius Taylor after the October 21st matchup with Iowa, and he now finishes the year with a 132.2% BAE Rating.

LeQuint Allen ends his regular season with four straight 100-yard rushing games by going 32-for-144 versus Wake Forest. The game put him over the 1000-yard threshold, brought his RSR to a scintillating 16.6%, and put his Dominator Rating at 28.5%, which would be a top-ten mark among ACC sophomores going back to 2007.

Gavin Sawchuk is also on a four-game 100-yard rushing streak, as he went 22-130-3 as part of a 69-point showing from the Oklahoma offense on Friday. He has a BAE Rating of 126.7% and will have an opportunity to provide a boost to the 2025 running back class by leveraging his late-season breakout into a dominant junior year.

Richard Reese ran for 666 fewer yards this season than he did as a freshman in 2022, but he capped off his year by returning two kicks for touchdowns against West Virginia on Saturday:

His efficiency numbers haven’t been amazing, but neither have those of Dominic Richardson and Dawson Pendergrass, the guys that Baylor has been running ahead of Reese all year. He probably deserves more work.

Quinshon Judkins continued his inefficient but reasonably productive year by turning 28 carries into 119 yards and a score against Mississippi State. Pro Football Focus credited him with an incredible 15 missed tackles forced in the game, a decent chunk of which must have come on this run:

Lastly but certainly not leastly, Jahiem White posted his third 140+ scrimmage yard outing in four weeks by turning 17 carries into 133 yards and adding a 29-yard receiving touchdown against Baylor:

He’s been stupidly efficient this season and joins Abu Sama as one of the most interesting non-brand name freshmen in the country.

Rushing Efficiency Leaderboards
Player Team Att Yards YPC BAE Rating RSR
Ollie Gordon Oklahoma State 245 1580 6.45 165.5% -1.1%
Cody Schrader Missouri 245 1483 5.98 165.8% 11.0%
Tahj Brooks Texas Tech 270 1452 5.38 70.2% 10.7%
Omarion Hampton North Carolina 234 1438 6.15 150.7% 7.6%
Kimani Vidal Troy 252 1349 5.35 117.8% 2.4%
Marcus Carroll Georgia State 271 1345 4.96 191.2% 22.3%
Peny Boone Toledo 182 1343 7.38 190.5% 16.0%
Audric Estime Notre Dame 209 1341 5.42 135.2% 8.9%
RJ Harvey UCF 209 1300 6.22 123.3% 7.2%
Jaydn Ott California 229 1257 5.49 120.0% 0.0%
Quinton Cooley Liberty 201 1254 6.24 118.5% 3.1%
Makhi Hughes Tulane 231 1241 5.37 121.8% 20.0%
Emani Bailey TCU 223 1211 5.43 159.5% 5.9%
Devin Neal Kansas 183 1209 6.61 129.3% -3.4%
Ismail Mahdi Texas State 197 1198 6.08 113.2% -2.5%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt New Mexico 188 1191 6.34 141.1% 14.8%
Damien Martinez Oregon State 195 1185 6.08 113.6% 0.7%
Antario Brown Northern Illinois 187 1164 6.22 101.1% -9.4%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams UMass 235 1135 4.91 70.0% -0.1%
Jonathon Brooks Texas 187 1135 6.07 113.2% 3.9%
Frank Gore Jr. Southern Miss. 229 1119 4.89 93.0% 2.9%
Kairee Robinson San Jose State 157 1110 7.07 101.1% 5.7%
Ashton Jeanty Boise State 180 1103 6.13 109.8% 0.1%
Kyle Monangai Rutgers 217 1110 5.07 126.8% 7.6%
DJ Giddens Kansas State 195 1075 5.51 107.8% 1.7%
Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.