Ashton Jeanty could be the best Boise State running back ever (and other lessons from week four in CFB)
Ashton Jeanty could be the best Boise State running back ever (and other lessons from week four in CFB)
Sep 27, 2023

We’re back like we never left with the biggest-yet recap of everything notable in the land of college running backs from the past week (where else are you getting thoughts on 54 different players?!), as well as with updated leaderboards for Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating and Relative Success Rate for the nation’s highest-volume runners. Let’s do it:

Boise State has produced multiple 1000-yard NFL rushers, and Ashton Jeanty is on pace to be the best running back the school’s ever had.

I grew up going to Boise State football games. I was at the Fiesta Bowl in early 2007 when 1700-yard rushing and 25-touchdown scoring Heisman candidate Ian Johnson scored the game-winning two-point conversion against Oklahoma and subsequently proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend. Johnson suffered from injuries and declining play in his final two seasons on campus and never really latched on in the NFL, but after him, the Broncos have become one of the main contenders for the title of mid-major RBU.

Doug Martin was a first-round pick in 2012 after rushing for over 1200 yards on two straight top-ten ranked Boise State teams (back in the Kellen Moore era) and then went on to make multiple Pro Bowls and was even named first-team All-Pro in 2015. Jay Ajayi was an even better college player than Martin was, with a junior season that saw him gain almost 2400 yards from scrimmage, catch 50 passes, and score 32 touchdowns on a 12-2 squad that finished 16th in the AP Poll. He became a fifth-round pick who ran for 1200 yards and made a Pro Bowl with the Dolphins before winning a Super Bowl as a major piece of the Eagles backfield in 2017. Jeremy McNichols nearly matched Ajayi’s collegiate dominance before being drafted in the fifth round by the 49ers. He never made much noise in the league, but then Alexander Mattison put together a pair of 1000-yard rushing campaigns before the Vikings took him in the third round to serve as the primary backup to Dalvin Cook, a role he excelled in as one of the NFL’s premier handcuff runners for the first few seasons of his career.

I don’t know if he’ll be a better pro than Martin, Ajayi, or even Mattison, but I contend that Ashton Jeanty is ahead of schedule as an NFL prospect relative to all of those guys. The teams he’s playing on aren’t the national contenders that Martin and Ajayi led backfields for, but other than the 19.3% Dominator Rating posted by current fifth-year senior George Holani back in 2019, Jeanty’s 17.0% DR from last season is the best mark earned by a Boise State freshman since at least 2007. His DR so far this year sits at a ridiculous 48.2%, easily higher than the high-water mark for Boise State sophomores represented by the 35.6% Rating posted by McNichols back in 2015. If he can maintain this pace, Jeanty will finish with the highest DR for any second-year college runner since at least 2007, as these guys own the current top-ten marks in that category:

Player Team Season Dominator Rating
Donnel Pumphrey San Diego State 2014 44.9%
Leonard Fournette LSU 2015 43.6%
Deuce Vaughn Kansas State 2021 43.6%
Kevin Harris South Carolina 2020 42.7%
De'Montre Tuggle Ohio 2020 41.7%
Carson Steele Ball State 2022 40.6%
Dalvin Cook Florida State 2015 40.1%
Marcus Lattimore South Carolina 2009 40.0%
Ryan Williams Virginia Tech 2009 39.6%
Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State 2009 39.5%

Jeanty has also earned those elite market share numbers not through some unsustainably hot run of short-yardage touchdowns or broken plays but via impressive contributions in most facets of running back play. He could be more consistent as a runner (see the efficiency leaderboards at the bottom of this article), but his current BAE Rating is 119.3% and his nation-leading 294 receiving yards on 19 receptions represent 83 more than the total for Memphis’ Blake Watson, the country’s second-most productive receiving running back, and 20 more than Donovan Edwards, Bucky Irving, and Will Shipley have combined. He’s also forcing 0.33 missed tackles per attempt (according to Pro Football Focus), a 97th-percentile mark that equals the rate at which tackle-breaking machines like David Montgomery and Kenneth Walker broke away from defenders during their own collegiate careers.

After putting up 115 ground yards on the UCF Knights that PFF currently rates as having the 15th-best rush defense in the country, and after gaining a combined 206 yards and two touchdowns through the air against UCF and the currently-8th-ranked Washington Huskies, Jeanty most recently ripped apart the hapless San Diego State defense for 254 yards from scrimmage, including 23-for-205 on the ground and half a season’s worth of highlight plays (see: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). As a former four-star recruit who’s producing the way he is and is already listed at a stout 5’9 and 210 pounds, Jeanty is well on his way to contention as a top-five back in the 2025 draft class and as the best runner produced by the top Group of Five running back factory west of Memphis.

Trey Benson is not RB1.

Here are the facts:

  • Florida State is currently 4-0 and ranked as the fifth-best team in the country.
  • Quarterback Jordan Travis and pass-catchers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, and Jaheim Bell are balling.
  • The Seminoles’ offensive line is rated by PFF as among the nation’s 35 best run-blocking units, and as the 23rd-best among major conference programs.
  • Trey Benson is averaging just 3.55 yards per carry on 31 attempts in three games against Power Five opponents.
  • Florida State’s other running backs -- Rodney Hill and Lawrence Toafili -- are averaging a collective 4.14 yards per carry on 28 attempts in those same games.
  • Across all games, Benson’s seasonal marks in BAE Rating and RSR are each lower than the career marks for every running back drafted since the metrics became available back in 2018.
  • Benson is forcing just 0.20 missed tackles and averaging only 3.13 yards after contact per attempt (both per PFF) so far this season after his 2022 marks in those categories were 0.51 and 4.53, respectively.
  • The 16.8% DR that his volume statistics currently produce in the context of this FSU offense would land in the 24th-percentile among fourth-year players who go on to play in the NFL (in JJ Taylor, Rico Dowdle, and CJ Verdell territory). Given that to-date mark, the most accomplished pro players at the top of his fourth-year production comps list (which incorporates both market share numbers and S&P+ ratings to quantify the quality of a player’s production given the quality of the team and offense on which he played) are TJ Logan, Tony Jones, La’Mical Perine, and Fitzgerald Toussaint.

Basically, Benson has been a non-factor this season. I was tentatively in on him coming into the year, but when the thesis behind him as a contender at the top of this running back class was predicated upon efficiency and through-contact ability as a runner that are simply not showing up on the field for him right now, there’s nothing to do but severely downgrade our expectations for him as a professional, especially considering that he’s not supplementing those areas of regression with improvement in other facets. Hopefully the guy we saw last season is in there somewhere.

Hello, Cam Skattebo.

I’m a sucker for a small school hero, and Arizona State’s Skattebo certainly qualifies after he produced a YPC+ mark of 1.34 during a two-year run at Sacramento State in which he also caught 43 passes for 495 yards and helped lead the Hornets to an 8-0 regular season, the school’s first victory in a decade against an FBS opponent (he had 123 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown when they stomped Colorado State, 41-10), and a season-ending ranking as the country’s fourth-best FCS team in 2022.

This season, the 5’10 and 225-pound fourth-year runner is operating at the Sun Devils’ lead back, and he looked like the best running back USC has seen all year on Saturday. ASU lost, but Skattebo finished with 20-for-111 and a touchdown on the ground, 4-for-79 and a touchdown (see below) through the air, another 42 yards on three passing attempts, and a 53-yard punt because why the hell not?

The raw 4.63 yards he’s averaging on a per-carry basis on the season don’t look awesome, but the Sun Devil offensive line is ranked as just the 88th-best in the country by PFF, and Skattebo has produced an RSR in the 55th percentile through four weeks. They’re different types of players, but I’m getting some of the same good-player-on-a-bad-team vibes from Skattebo that Evan Hull exuded the last couple of years. 28

MarShawn Lloyd looking lonely at the top.

Speaking of USC, we’ve been waiting to see how this backfield would shake out in a legitimately competitive game, and the Arizona State matchup that was their first of the year against an in-conference foe provided just that. In it, Lloyd out-touched the collective other backs on the team 15-3 after entering the contest as the team’s touch leader but trailing those other guys 28-44 through the weeks. He turned that work into 150 scrimmage yards against the Devils, and with current marks of 8.95 raw yards per carry and 0.42 missed tackles forced per attempt to go with a 99th-percentile Chunk Rate+ of 10.9%, it’s going to be rocket ship emojis for Lloyd’s status in this running back class if Lincoln Riley continues to give him an 80% opportunity share (and why wouldn’t he?). Next up: the Colorado Buffaloes, with their swiss cheese defensive interior that is giving up 5.3 yards per carry (ninth-most in the country) and is currently rated by PFF as the nation’s eighth-worst unit against the rush.

Small school check-in:

Marcus Carroll put up 29-150-2 on Coastal Carolina, even adding another 36 yards through the air. He’s currently the third-leading rusher in a Sun Belt Conference that boasts multiple quality running backs.

The guy just ahead of him on that list is Kimani Vidal, who rebounded from a down week against James Madison with 214 yards from scrimmage against Western Kentucky on Saturday, including 156 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.

Perhaps the week’s best performance by a non-Power Five runner came from another Sun Belt guy in Rasheen Ali, who put up 174 yards and two touchdowns on 27 attempts in Marshall’s victory over Virginia Tech. He appears to be fully back from the injury that resulted in his taking a medical redshirt last season:

Jalen Buckley is quickly becoming one of my favorite Group of Five backs in the country and is a near-weekly presence in this article, this time showing up after a 29-196-2 performance against Toledo. Iowa is the only defense that’s kept him out of the endzone so far this season.

Buckley was somehow not the best running back in that Toledo game, as the Rockets’ Peny Boone had 211 yards and two touchdowns of his own on 24 carries. His current BAE Rating of 155.5% is a massive improvement over the 83.4% career mark that he entered the season with, and the 242-pounder has some smooth hips for a guy of his size:

Frank Gore Jr. had his first good game of the season, as he more than doubled his previous season total in rushing yards with a 20-132-1 line against Arkansas State.

I’d never even heard of Ismail Mahdi before combing through this week’s box scores, but the Texas State sophomore entered Saturday’s game against Nevada with 183 yards on just 15 carries (he had 93 yards and two touchdowns on seven touches against Baylor in the season-opener), and he turned a lead-back workload of 21 rushing attempts into 216 yards and two touchdowns against the Wolf Pack. He posted 1.46 YPC+ and caught 32 passes for 333 yards as a true freshman operating as the RB1 for Houston Christian University (an FCS team) last season. He’s listed at just 5’9 and 180 pounds, but his 276.4% BAE Rating is the highest in the country among backs with at least 20 carries. Seems like the kid can play:

I mentioned Memphis’ Blake Watson in the Ashton Jeanty segment of this piece, but he added 83 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions against Missouri to bring his season receiving totals to 24-213-1 after just four games. He had 37-314-2 on a 12.2% Target Share and 78th-percentile Route Diversity while also producing a 151.2% BAE Rating and 4.8% RSR as the lead back at Old Dominion last season, and he’s looking like a similarly dangerous player with the Tigers.

Wyoming’s Harrison Waylee has put together a sneaky nice two-week stretch, as he followed up an 18-110-1 game against Texas with 17-156-1 against Appalachian State. He was the week’s second-fastest ball-carrier across all of college football on this run:

It’s been a long and winding journey for former five-star recruit Lorenzo Lingard, but the sixth-year player and now-Akron Zip put up 113 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries against Indiana this weekend, and he’s averaging 16.3 yards on nine receptions thus far this season. He’s a long shot to contribute on Sundays given the bummer his college career has turned out to be, but he entered the season averaging 6.65 yards per carry for his career and most recently produced a 140.6% BAE Rating on low volume at Florida, so it’s not as if he’s been ineffective when on the field.

UNLV’s Jai’Den Thomas and UTEP’s Torrance Burgess are both small backs (5’9 180 and 5’6 175, respectively), but they went toe-to-toe with impressive performances in their teams’ matchup over the weekend. Thomas had 114 yards and four scores on just 15 touches while Burgess had 129 and one touchdown on 22 touches.

The 213-pound Quinton Cooley has been around long enough to have been a depth piece behind Kenneth Walker at Wake Forest, but he’s currently Liberty’s leading rusher and most recently went for 12-102 against FIU for his second 100-yard game of the season. Liberty sophomore Billy Lucas added 102 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries of his own.

The backfield for the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns virtually matched the Liberty boys on Saturday, as Dre’Lyn Washington and Jacob Kibodi each had over 100 rushing yards against Buffalo. They’re both averaging more than nine yards per carry on the season, with Washington the more interesting player from a prospecting perspective considering he’s a 210-pound sophomore who posted a 126.4% BAE Rating last season (Kibodi is a sixth-year guy who transferred from Texas A&M and will touch the ball more than 40 times for the first time in his career this season).

Fourth-year Bowling Green runner Terion Stewart missed all of last season while tending to his health and focusing on school, but his efficiency marks were largely very good in the two seasons prior to his absence. This season, the 225-pounder is operating as the team’s lead back and most recently put up 107 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries against Ohio.

Jase McClellan shows up.

I said last week that we were approaching put-up-or-shut-up time for McClellan, and then he went out and dropped 17-105-1 in a win against Ole Miss that saw fellow runners Roydell Williams and Jamarion Miller combine for just 15 yards on their nine attempts.

Reports of Braelon Allen’s demise were greatly exaggerated.

I also speculated last week that conference play would give us a clearer indication of the Wisconsin running back’s fit in this Dairy Raid offense and, by extension, his odds of producing like a day-two NFL draft pick during this his junior season, and his 16-116-2 performance against Purdue is an encouraging benchmark to those ends. Cory Pereira summed things up well:

Kaytron Allen versus Nick Singleton.

It was rough sledding for both of these guys against Iowa, as they combined for just 121 yards on 38 carries against the stout Hawkeye defense. Allen once again was the team’s preferred option and performed slightly more efficiently on his opportunities, however, as he averaged 3.43 yards on his 21 carries compared to Singleton’s 2.88 on 17 attempts.

Miyan Williams is Ohio State’s clear RB3.

Dude had one carry for zero yards against Notre Dame. Meanwhile, TreVeyon Henderson is nearly back to his freshman mark of 6.82 yards per carry after putting up 14-104-1 in the win over Notre Dame. He looks like 2021 Henderson, too:

Chip Trayanum didn’t get much going on his six carries against the Irish, but at least he played.

On the other end of that matchup, Audric Estime remains the country’s rushing leader but was held to 70 yards on 14 carries against Ohio State. He should have more success against a Duke defense that Will Shipley put up 117 yards on in week zero (and that PFF rates outside the top-100 versus the run).

New starters showing out.

Le’Veon Moss was not good as a true freshman playing behind De’Von Achane last season (below the 20th-percentile in both BAE Rating and RSR, just 4.29 raw yards per carry), but the 210-pound four-star had 15 carries for 97 yards and touchdown while operating as Texas A&M’s lead back against Auburn on Saturday. His marks in those team-relative metrics are each in the 99th percentile so far this year.

LeQuint Allen’s efficiency has taken a step back from the 6.68 yards he averaged on a per-carry basis as Sean Tucker’s backup in 2022, but he’s still producing positive team-relative marks and most recently went for 21-104-1 against Army.

Emani Bailey continues his strong run of play as Kendre MIller’s replacement at TCU, this time with a game against SMU that marks his second straight 126-yard and one-touchdown performance.

It strikes me as somewhat surprising that third-year Texas runner Jonathon Brooks has held off talented underclassmen CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue to the degree that he has so far, but he just ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts against Baylor and has BAE Rating and RSR marks (in the 87th and 98th percentiles, respectively) that indicate his voluminous role has not simply been the result of veteran deference.

Unless I’m overlooking something obvious, Minnesota’s Darius Taylor has been the most impressive freshman running back in the country. He just put up 198 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern to notch his third straight game of more than 160 yards from scrimmage, and this tweet pretty much encapsulates my thoughts on his season so far:

DJ Giddens had a 141.0% BAE Rating and a 23.5% RSR while playing behind Deuce Vaughn last season, and he led Kansas State in both rushing and receiving with a 293-scrimmage yard and four-touchdown performance against UCF on Saturday. At 6’1 and 212 pounds, he could be a legitimate player in the 2025 running back class.

Others worth mentioning:

Ray Davis wasn’t super efficient against his old Vanderbilt Commodores, but he did score two touchdowns on his 17 carries.

Bucky Irving was impossible to tackle at times against Colorado (see: 1, 2), and he gained a cool 108 yards on just 13 touches in the game.

Former four-star recruit Henry Parrish Jr. is listed at a svelte 5’10 and 190 pounds, but he’s averaging over a full yard per carry greater and has nearly 20 touches more than the next-most efficient and involved Miami runner. He put up 16-139-2 on Temple this week.

The even more svelte Jawhar Jordan (5’10 185) continued his dominant season with 209 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage on just 19 touches against Boston College. He currently ranks eighth in the country in rushing yards and has more than 25 fewer carries than anybody ahead of him on that list.

220-pound senior Tahj Brooks is dominating touches in the Texas Tech backfield (he has 62 more than what Cam’Ron Valdez, the team’s RB2, has this season). He also just gained 149 yards on 25 carries against West Virginia.

Tennessee sophomore Dylan Sampson turned 11 attempts into 139 yards and two touchdowns versus UTSA.

Oklahoma State sophomore Ollie Gordon had 121 yards on 18 carries against Iowa State.

Justice Ellison is another guy who’s been hanging around Wake Forest since Kenneth Walker was on the team, and he just put up 18-137 on Georgia Tech.

Missouri sophomore Cody Schrader is putting up really nice team-relative efficiency numbers (176.4% BAE Rating and 1.2% RSR) for the second season in a row and most recently gained 123 yards and scored a touchdown on 14 carries against Memphis.

Four-star freshman Parker Jenkins got his first start for Houston on Saturday and turned 20 carries into 105 yards and three touchdowns against Sam Houston.

The explosive Damien Martinez had a solid game against the Washington State defense that held Braelon Allen to fewer than three yards per carry a couple weeks ago by going for 81 yards on 17 attempts, but it was sixth-year man Deshaun Fenwick who really shined. He turned 11 carries into 101 yards and three scores.

Blake Corum put together his fourth good performance in as many games this season with a 21-97-2 line against Rutgers:

Donovan Edwards had another inefficient day on the ground (6 carries for 13 yards) but did contribute 41 yards in the receiving game.

Lastly, while Quinshon Judkins has hardly had a performance worth mentioning this season, the fact that that’s the case is worth mentioning in itself. The 56 yards he gained and 4.31 yards he averaged on a per-carry basis this weekend against Alabama were both the best he’s managed since the season-opener against Mercer. He’s in Trey Benson territory with a 69.6% BAE Rating and -12.5% RSR right now.

Rushing Efficiency Leaderboards

Here are the top-15 runners from Group of Five schools in terms of total carries on the season, listed alongside their marks in both BAE Rating and RSR:

Player Team Carries BAE Rating RSR
Nate Noel Appalachian State 105 154.6% 10.0%
Marcus Carroll Georgia State 96 162.4%% 8.9%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams UMass 96 270.0% 24.4%
Jalen Buckley Western Michigan 81 165.1% -4.1%
Kimani Vidal Troy 79 142.6% -3.2%
Sieg Bangura Ohio 74 122.5% 2.8%
Ashton Jeanty Boise State 72 119.3% -10.0%
Gavin Garcia Kent State 69 112.3% 6.5%
O'Shaan Allison Ohio 67 80.3% -6.0%
Malik Jackson Jacksonville State 65 129.3% 0.0%
Elijah Gilliam Fresno State 65 80.4% -5.7%
Kevorian Barnes UTSA 64 95.7% -0.4%
Antario Brown Northern Illinois 63 76.3% -4.6%
Rasheen Ali Marshall 63 200.7% 17.0%
Marquez Cooper Ball State 58 89.9% -3.3%

And here is the same list but for Power Five runners:

Player Team Carries BAE Rating RSR
Darius Taylor Minnesota 87 139.9% 34.5%
Emani Bailey TCU 81 170.8% 3.1%
Audric Estime Notre Dame 76 142.5% 6.7%
Omario Hampton North Carolina 73 136.5% 5.0%
Nathan Carter Michigan State 73 201.8% 8.8%
Kyle Monangai Rutgers 69 132.8% 13.2%
Cody Schrader Missouri 66 176.6% 1.2%
DJ Giddens Kansas State 66 148.1% 10.5%
Jonathon Brooks Texas 65 138.0% 12.5%
Jo'quavious Marks Mississippi State 63 124.1% 3.2%
Demond Claiborne Wake Forest 63 92.1% -8.3%
Tahj Brooks Texas Tech 63 146.6% 37.0%
Kaytron Allen Penn State 63 120.3% 21.1%
LeQuint Allen Syracuse 62 126.8% 27.3%
CJ Donaldson West Virginia 62 104.8% 16.7%
Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.