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I’ll start by caveating all of the following takes with the fact that I have been successful in tracking down just three games’ worth of all-22 film of Estime. The games I’ve been able to watch through that lens are the 2023 matchups against North Carolina State, Ohio State, and Clemson in which Estime went a combined 45-291-3 on the ground and added six receptions for 55 total yards. I also watched and charted his 2023 games against Navy, Central Michigan, Duke, and USC, as well as his 2022 contests against Ohio State, Cal, and North Carolina, though because these seven were available only as YouTube cutups from the broadcast angle, I opted to not chart backfield decision-making in them, limiting myself to evasive maneuvers and physical interactions with defenders. At the end of it all, we’re left with a 157-carry sample from which to draw conclusions about Estime’s elusiveness and power, and a 45-carry sample from which to draw conclusions about his cerebral approach at the line of scrimmage. I wish that second sample was bigger, but what are you gonna do?

All that being said, I think Estime has some of the best tape among backs in either this or last year’s class, and he might be the single best gap runner I’ve studied. He’s not an incredibly active identifier of extra-structural paths on those plays – his rate of neutral vision grades on gap runs ranks 12th out of 36 qualifying runners and is approximately 6% higher than the population average – but when the design calls for you to hit a specific gap, consistent fidelity is a good thing. That’s not to say Estime can’t find open space when it’s appropriate, however, as shown in these three examples of him venturing away from lead blockers to find greener grass:

You’ll also notice in those plays that Estime is a tightly-wound and self-contained runner. His skillful tracking is one of his best qualities, as he follows closely behind pullers, presses close to his offensive line, avoids drifting into no-man’s land when navigating from gap to gap (even when cutting to the outside, as the first play in that video shows), and generally confines his movements to the same magic line that I’ve frequently referred to when praising Blake Corum’s tidy approach at the line of scrimmage. That ability is just straightforwardly impressive for a guy as big as Estime is, but it also a) matters in minimizing opportunities defenders have either to get a hand on him or to anticipate where he’s going, and b) is indicative of a confident grasp of his schematic responsibilities. Estime is neither antsy (in that he doesn’t overrun his pullers to the outside, unnecessarily explode upfield before reading the leverage of his blocks, etc.) nor timid (in that he doesn’t allow dead space between himself and pullers, scan the line of scrimmage from deep in the backfield, etc.), instead appearing quite comfortable operating in the sweet spot between too fast and too slow, like a drafting race car biding its time on a cliff’s edge of liminal space until the perfect moment presents itself.

That comfort and control manifest themselves also in Estime’s patience, discipline, and decisiveness grades, which all rank above the population average on gap runs (the last sitting in first-place tie with Zach Evans): he simply knows when to go and when to hold off. A more active aspect of his gap-running tool-kit is his ability to manipulate defenders out of position, something we saw on that first run against Ohio State and that also appears in these three plays (the first two are duo runs and the third is very outside zone-like, but also – at least in my opinion – produces an analogous enough situation to be relevant to power sweep- or pin & pull-type settings):

Estime’s overall grade on gap runs comes out to 0.96, the highest for any back I’ve charted and a full 0.11 above DeWayne McBride’s second-place mark of 0.85 (that disparity is the same as the one between third place and twelfth place).

The Notre Dame product is also a quality zone runner, though his grades in this area are much closer to the population averages. His tracking remains elite on these concepts (it ranks fourth among 36 qualifiers), while his vision, patience, discipline, and overall grades are all slightly better than the mean. Pro Football Focus says that right around 40% of his total carries over the last two seasons have come on zone plays (and the breakdown of my charted sample agrees), so it’s possible that he’s just a bit less comfortable running them than the power and pin & pull concepts that he made a living off of. The worst aspect of Estime’s decision-making was the decisiveness (or lack thereof) he displayed specifically on inside zone runs (here are two examples), which – while I didn’t find it to be a pervasive drag on this part of his game – makes sense under the above hypothesis.

Let’s finish up with a discussion of Estime’s movement skills and physicality. I talked about his athletic profile in a post-Combine article last month, and the explosion and lower body strength he displayed in the jumping drills also shows up in the power with which he runs on the field. Despite the limitations that his size imposes on his lateral quickness – Estime’s success rate on evasive maneuvers is a below-average mark of 66.7%, while his rate of contact solidity is a 0.47 that ranks seventh out of 39 qualifiers – he’s pretty good at powering through would-be tacklers and gaining extra yards. His through-contact success versus defensive linemen exceeds the marks posted (in my charting) by both Braelon Allen and Derrick Henry, while his power versus linebackers ranks seventh out of 37 qualifying backs. His general power versus all defensive position groups also produces a top-ten mark, coming in just ahead of those posted by guys like Bijan Robinson and Leonard Fournette.

Estime is pretty similar to Allen as a lateral mover (which is to say I think he’s quite good for a big back in that area), but he doesn’t have the same frustrating moments as a tackle-breaker and pile-mover as Allen does. He’s not a tooth-and-nail fighter like Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, or Kendre Miller, but he does a good job of keeping his pads low, aligning his body upfield, and churning his feet to grind out yardage, and his through-contact numbers look good as a result. My charting numbers come at that from one angle, while PFF’s substantiate them from another: among 31 collegiate backs with at least 200 carries last season, Estime was one of just three (along with Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton) to gain more than four yards after contact per attempt, as his 4.27 average was nearly what Quinshon Judkins gained before and after contact on his average carry. In 2022, Estime averaged 3.65 YAC per attempt, 30th among over 200 backs with 100+ carries and ahead of hard-charging runners like Kendre Miller, Zach Evans, Damien Martinez, and Judkins. On seven attempts as a true freshman, he gained an average of 6.29 YAC per attempt.

I hope it’s clear why I have Estime ranked as my RB3 in this class. He’s a technically sound runner (especially on gap concepts) who moves well for a big guy and packs the sort of punch you’d expect from a 225-pound workhorse, and – as the Pass-Catching Primer article from late February indicates, and as smooth angle routes and impressive outside-the-frame catches from his film substantiate – I also think he has legitimate three-down ability. What’s more, the Twittersphere is remarkably harmonious in its estimation of Estime’s pass protection skills. You could make a decent argument that he’s the most complete running back in this year’s class, and a slow forty-yard dash and low Target Share aren’t enough to knock me off the bandwagon.