This is where I usually put some sort of hook or make a mildly amusing quip, but you’ll have to settle for this even less amusing meta-commentary this time around. That said, here are thoughts and data on more than 50 running backs and their performances from week eight in college football:
Braelon Allen is inevitable.
Blake Corum has a legitimate claim to being the best in-a-vacuum player in the upcoming rookie running back class, but in a fantasy football world in which we have to care about draft capital in addition to on-field merits, I think the competition for RB1 in the 2024 group is between Braelon Allen and the field.
Everyone knows the broad strokes by now: Allen is a 6’2 and 245-pound beast who is closing in on a top-ten spot on Wisconsin’s all-time rushing list (he’ll get there with 56 yards against Indiana this weekend) despite being just 19-years old and having played just over two-and-a-half seasons of college ball. After running for 145 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries versus Indiana on Saturday, Allen’s current per-game rushing pace is enough to see him pass all but Jonathan Taylor among the non-four-year backs on that list by season’s end, assuming the Badgers play in both a bowl game and the Big Ten Championship Game (which they’re currently in position to do). Allen is also a workout warrior who has been timed at upwards of 20 miles per hour on runs in both high school and college, who cleared a verified 120 inches in the broad jump (a mark just below the Combine median and equal to the distances reached by Rashaad Penny, Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Allgeier, and Lamar Miller) as a 17-year old, and who -- according to Bruce Feldman’s 2022 Freak List -- squats over 600 pounds and boasts a 1.49-second 10-yard split on his 40-yard dash, a mark equivalent to the initial burst posted during the Combine forties of explosive runners like De’Von Achane, Edgerrin James, Raheem Mostert, and Kenneth Walker.
It’s not just the physicality, the precociousness, and the volume stats that make Allen a good bet as RB1, though. Informed by a draft capital-projection process that I discussed in this recent article on the relative strength of the 2024 running back class, his production profile makes him a strong candidate to be selected in the second round this spring, and I think the high level of play he has sustained through significant systemic upheaval in the Badgers’ offense this season should give us a lot of confidence in a) the regard in which NFL personnel departments will hold him during the pre-draft cycle, and b) Allen’s own ability to adapt to whatever offensive system he ends up in as a professional. I’m not the scheme guy and couldn’t draw up the Xs and Os on how new offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s “Dairy Raid” system differs from the ground-and-pound attacks that Paul Chryst and other coaches implemented with the Badgers for the better part of the last three decades, but the drastic shift in philosophy with this new regime has brought more than just a double-digit increase in per-game pass attempts with it. As the following table shows, the situations in and methods by which Allen has run the ball this season have differed significantly from those in and by which he was doing so in his first two years on campus:
Season |
Shotgun % |
3+ WRs % |
Avg Box Defenders |
Gap Run % |
2023 |
98.3% |
79.5% |
6.79 |
27.5% |
2022 |
22.7% |
14.0% |
7.37 |
59.6% |
2021 |
17.8% |
15.7% |
7.15 |
45.4% |
And here are Allen’s efficiency numbers in each of those seasons:
Season |
Raw YPC |
BAE Rating |
RSR |
RYOE per Att |
2023 |
5.87 |
110.9% |
1.1% |
0.48 |
2022 |
5.40 |
97.3% |
5.5% |
0.51 |
2021 |
6.82 |
148.5% |
7.8% |
1.71 |
Despite a slight down year in the per-carry efficiency department in 2022 (that you’ll notice coincided with some ridiculous box-stacking by opposing defenses, as the 7.37 average box defenders that Allen saw on his carries in 2022 is a 99th-percentile mark), Allen has been remarkably consistent as a down-to-down producer in every season of his career, and on 120 attempts through the first seven games of 2023, he has now proven capable of high-end output on a steady diet of zone runs in modern shotgun sets with three wide receivers on the field after having done so on a gap-heavy workload in offenses that advertised their intention to run by lining up under center and packing the formation with tight ends through his first two seasons in college. Running the ball out of an I-formation and to a designed gap is fundamentally different than doing so while being forced to read holes while standing next to your quarterback, and we’ve seen running backs struggle to transition between these disparate environments before (Jonathan Taylor had quite the slog early on in his own NFL career while running more zone and nearly doubling his rate of carries out of the gun versus what he’d been tasked with at Wisconsin). The fact that Allen has maintained a high standard of play during that transition speaks well to the translatability of his game to varied situations at the next level, and lends his evaluation a greater degree of confidence than it would have had in the absence of this shift in offensive philosophy.
Other RB1 contenders:
I mentioned that the competition for RB1 in the upcoming rookie class is between Allen and the field, but that doesn’t mean the rest of the 2024 group is just a mess of guys without much to distinguish between them. Let’s check in on the week eight performances of a few other backs near the top of the draft-eligible crop:
With 59 yards on 15 carries, Blake Corum had his least efficient rushing outing of the season against Michigan State this Saturday (after having what was then his least efficient rushing outing of the season against Indiana a week ago), but he met his touchdown quota and, as has become a weekly inevitability, far outperformed Donovan Edwards and the other Michigan backs on the ground, a group that went a collective 10-for-23 versus the Spartans. The Wolverines have a bye week before Corum will have a chance to get his efficiency back on track versus Purdue.
Jonathon Brooks continues to absolutely smash, as he ran for 99 yards on 20 carries while adding eight receptions for another 51 yards against Houston this week, giving him five straight games of at least 125 yards from scrimmage. It’s been especially nice to see him turn things on in the passing game, as he’s hauled in more balls in the last two games -- 13 combined -- than he had across his entire career up to that point. Also, I have no frame of reference for this stat but it struck me as pretty wild:
Marshawn Lloyd (yes, I consider him an RB1 contender, if not in terms of draft capital and eventual rookie draft valuation then at least in terms of on-field ability, though I also think he’d be a more deserving day-two pick than several guys taken in that range in the past few classes) was once again underutilized despite tremendous efficiency in this weekend’s loss to Utah, with 86 yards and the following touchdown on just seven carries:
Lloyd currently has a half-yard lead over second-place Jawhar Jordan as the nation’s top yards-per-carry man among backs averaging at least ten attempts per game.
Non-RB1-contending draft-eligibles:
While I don’t actually expect him to declare for the draft, I wanted to talk about how Utah safety-turned-running back Sione Vaki followed up his breakout offensive performance from last week. Dude smashed again, going 9-68 on the ground and 5-149-2 (!!) through the air to lead all participants in scrimmage yards in the Utes’ victory over USC. It wasn’t just a couple screen passes that he took to the house, either, as Vaki smoked an edge defender up the sideline on this wheel route score and then broke some ankles and ruined some angles after the catch on this touchdown from a Texas route. In the same backfield, Ja’Quinden Jackson turned his own 26 carries into 117 yards.
DJ Giddens once again ran behind Treshaun Ward in Kansas State’s stomping of TCU this week, with just nine carries to the super-senior’s 17, but he did provide me with a bit of vindication for my proclamation of his underratedness by running efficiently -- 9.4 yards per carry compared to 5.2 for Ward -- and flexing his explosiveness on this 61-yard house call on a swing pass. I’m not sure why Ward is getting more (or even as many) opportunities than the clearly-better Giddens is, but it’s perhaps worth a) mentioning that Giddens out-touched Ward 9-7 prior to halftime of this game before getting the ball just twice during a second half throughout which the Wildcats led by at least 27 points, and b) blaspheming to point out that studs like Chris Carson and Alvin Kamara have operated as 1B runners to blah backs like Justice Hill and Jalen Hurd in the past. I’m not saying but I’m just saying.
On the other side of that matchup was Emani Bailey, who was a bright spot on an otherwise dreary day for the Horned Frogs. His 100 yards on 12 attempts bring his season-long total to 851 rushing yards, sixth-most in the entire country.
Bucky Irving continues to fill up both the stat sheet and the highlight reel, as he turned 18 touches into 180 yards and three touchdowns against Washington State, including this ridiculous dead leg juke that put a Cougar defender on his knees at the line of scrimmage:
2.6 yards per carry means it wasn’t a great day from Miyan Williams (or really anybody except for Marvin Harrison Jr.) in Ohio State’s snooze-fest victory over Penn State, but it was notable in that he not only played, period, but ran ahead of Chip Trayanum and nearly doubled his season-long touch total by getting the ball 25 times. We’ve now seen four different players (Williams, Dallan Hayden, Trayanum, and TreVeyon Henderson, who missed his third straight game with an injury on Saturday) lead the Buckeye backfield in opportunities in the last four weeks.
Jase McClellan had his most productive game of the year against Tennessee, as he operated as Alabama’s workhorse and turned 27 carries into 115 yards and a score. I would drop a clip of a highlight run or point out some cool stat from him, but he’s a relatively boring running back prospect who is currently averaging just 4.61 yards per carry (which ranks 148th out of 242 backs with at least 40 attempts) behind an offensive line that PFF ranks as the 8th-best run-blocking unit in the country, so there’s not much excitement to be had here.
Carson Steele had his third straight game of 20 or more carries against Stanford, and he converted those opportunities into just 76 yards but scored three touchdowns.
Another guy who probably won’t (or at least shouldn’t) declare for the draft is Jarquez Hunter, who has been completely underwhelming in his new role as Auburn’s RB1 following two seasons of efficient play behind Tank Bigsby. He did have his best game this week, though, with 15-91-2 on the ground and 3-54 through the air against Ole Miss, including this nice touchdown run:
Even after the solid performance, Hunter’s season-long numbers are still well below the baselines in both Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating and Relative Success Rate.
With 24 carries for 109 yards against Indiana, Kyle Monangai is now at two straight games of at least 100 rushing yards and four such games total on the season. He has just 23 receiving yards this season (and just 122 in his four-year career), but his production and rushing efficiency numbers suggest that he should be taken a little bit more seriously as a prospect than his current level of buzz would indicate (even if “more seriously” just means “this guy might be an interesting UDFA”).
Other random upperclassmen:
RJ Harvey ran for 101 yards on 23 carries against Oklahoma and has posted at least 100 yards from scrimmage in every game this season.
Corey Kiner and Myles Montgomery combined for 232 yards on 25 attempts versus Baylor, with Montgomery scoring twice and each of them going for at least 100 yards. Kiner has clearly been the lead back this season and is the more efficient of the two runners, though Montgomery has him easily beat in terms of Success Rate.
Missouri’s Cody Schrader continued his alternatingly good and bad performances by following up a 20-71 line from last week with 159 yards and two scores on 26 carries against South Carolina.
Mild surprise this week came from the Pitt coaching staff’s decision to roll out sixth-year man C’Bo Flemister as their lead running back over junior Rodney Hammond. There really hasn’t been much to separate these guys in terms of efficiency this season, but the workload distribution swung heavily toward Flemister in the matchup against Wake Forest, and he turned his 23 carries into 105 yards while Hammond totaled eight yards on just four touches.
Jaquez Moore also saw a season-high in opportunity this week, as he out-touched Jordan Waters for the first time in Duke’s loss to Florida State, turning 16 carries into 110 yards and a touchdown while Waters went just 13-for-39.
Small school recap:
Marquez Cooper isn’t quite Carson Steele, but he’s done a fine job stepping into the RB1 chair at Ball State after rushing for over 1200 yards in each of the last two seasons at Kent State, and this week saw him have probably his best game of the year so far. In a win over Central Michigan, Cooper turned 26 carries into 162 yards, including this great effort to get into the endzone:
Florida transfer Nay’Quan Wright outdid Cooper’s yardage total this week with a 186-yard, two-touchdown performance on 26 carries against UConn. He never really made a huge impact with the Gators, but he’s posted really nice efficiency numbers as USF’s lead runner this season.
La’Damian Webb is another transfer from a big-time Florida school who is balling as the RB1 at a mid-major program these days, and he scored a season-high four touchdowns to go with 102 yards on 20 carries in South Alabama’s victory over Southern Miss last Tuesday. He’s one of the best G5 runners in the country and has a BAE Rating of 129.7% after finishing at 127.0% in 2022.
Another (and probably stronger) candidate for the title of best G5 runner in the country is Terion Stewart, who just went 19-131-3 against Akron. The stat shared in this tweet is not a typo:
The nation’s third-leading BAE Rating man is Kadarius Calloway of Old Dominion, who has now posted 100 or more scrimmage yards in all three games since breaking out against Marshall back on September 30th. This week saw him run for 104 yards on 13 carries versus Appalachian State, while also adding 3-20-1 through the air for good measure. His teammate Keshawn Wicks ran for 82 yards and two touchdowns (including the game-winner) on 12 carries of his own in the matchup.
Jalen White ran for 125 yards against Citadel in the season opener, had just 186 yards in the next four games combined, and then ran for 164 and two scores on 26 attempts against UL-Monroe this Saturday.
Tulane’s Makhi Hughes continues to serve as an excellent replacement for Tyjae Spears, most recently bringing his streak of games with 120+ rushing yards to three with a 20-121-1 line against North Texas. His 26.5% mark is the highest RSR in the country among backs with at least 40 attempts.
Quinton Cooley has now run for over 100 yards in four straight games and in five of seven on the year following his 124-yard and three-touchdown performance on 24 carries against Middle Tennessee State.
Ahmonte Watkins was a member of the 2021 TCU backfield that included Zach Evans, Kendre Miller, and NFL bellcow Emari Demercado, and he’s now smashing on low volume as a committee member in the New Mexico State backfield. He’s just third among running backs on the team in carries, but is averaging 11.86 yards per carry on the season and turned ten carries into 109 yards against UTEP last Wednesday. He’s clearly the best runner on the team (the other guys are averaging a collective 4.5 yards per carry on the year) and was the backfield’s touch leader last week for the first time since September 9th, so hopefully his place in the pecking order is improving.
On the other side of that matchup was Deion Hankins, who went 16-120 for UTEP to mark his first 100-yard rushing game against an FBS opponent this season (he had 174 against Incarnate Word back in early September).
Dean Connors also notched his first 100-yard of the season (against any opponent) by turning nine carries into 120 yards and three scores against Tulsa. Each of his touchdown runs was pretty nice (see 1, 2, 3).
Memphis’ Blake Watson continues his dominant year with a 21-125-1 line versus UAB. He’s fifth among G5 backs with 120.1 scrimmage yards per game this season.
Camryn Edwards has operated as the RB2 behind Victor Rosa in the UConn backfield this year, but he stepped up after Rosa suffered an injury in their game against South Florida and ended up turning 26 touches into 164 yards and two scores.
New Mexico’s Andrew Henry went 13-112-1 on the ground and added 27 yards on three receptions in a win over Hawaii on Saturday after having touched the ball just six times all season prior to the game.
Lastly among our G5 runners, Kairee Robinson did his usual damage by putting up 124 yards and two touchdowns on 25 touches against Utah State.
Notable non-draft-eligibles:
I dedicated quite a bit of page space last week to Ollie Gordon and the 46.4 PPR points that he laid on Kansas, and then he went out and dropped 52.2 points -- with 29-282-4 on the ground -- against West Virginia on Saturday:
I’m not super familiar with the selection criteria for the Doak Walker Award, but I would imagine it’s a two-man race between Gordon and Jonathon Brooks right now.
I speculated last week that Oklahoma State’s Gordon could turn out to be a better NFL prospect than Chuba Hubbard was out of the same program, and I think Omarion Hampton is on a similar trajectory at another school with a strong recent history of producing quality professional backs. This week, he put up 131 yards on 20 touches against Virginia to make it three straight contests with at least 100 yards from scrimmage, and his to-date efficiency numbers are excellent. The 5.88 raw yards per carry Hampton has averaged on his 131 attempts is an 80th-percentile mark among collegiate backs in the last six years, but he’s also running behind an offensive line that PFF rates as the country’s 110th-best run-blocking unit and on a team that has seen its other running backs collectively produce just 3.73 yards per carry. As things stand today, prorating Hampton’s numbers to a full season’s worth of volume would mean that David Montgomery’s 2018 campaign is the most comparable to Hampton’s 2023 among all Power Five running back seasons since box count-adjusted numbers became available.
One guy whose efficiency is not quite that impressive right now is Quinshon Judkins, who ran for 124 yards and a touchdown against Auburn to notch his second 100-yard game of the season this weekend.
I talked a bit about Kaden Feagin in last week’s CFB recap article, and he earned another appearance with a 24-97-1 line against Wisconsin in what was a matchup between huge running backs. He has impressive burst for a 250-pounder:
Demond Claiborne hadn’t run for more than 3.2 yards per carry in any single game since September 9th before putting up 14-96-2 on Pitt on Saturday, and he also added a 22-yard reception to his statline.
Gavin Sawchuk was a top-ten running back in last year’s recruiting class who played well on low volume as a freshman but hasn’t done much so far in 2023, but he saw double-digit carries for the first time this season against UCF. He turned his ten attempts into 63 yards and a touchdown in a game in which Marcus Major, Oklahoma’s RB1, managed only 4.6 yards per carry.
Much has been made of Bucky Irving’s dynamic skill-set and impressive production this year, but 205-pound sophomore Jordan James has been Oregon’s most effective runner. He’s averaging more yards per carry and succeeding on a much higher percentage of his rushing attempts even while seeing substantially heavier defensive fronts than Irving has. In a game where his counterpart exploded for nearly 200 yards from scrimmage, James put up 103 yards on 13 carries of his own against Washington State this weekend.
Metric Leaderboards
On the latest stop in my never-ending search for creatively contrived ways to present rushing efficiency data on a weekly basis, I’ve stumbled upon my best idea yet. Here are the lead backs (by carry count) from each school ranked in the top-25 of the AP poll, presented alongside their raw yards per carry, BAE Rating, and RSR marks:
Rank |
School |
Lead Back |
Raw YPC |
BAE Rating |
RSR |
1 |
Georgia |
Daijun Edwards |
5.75 |
111.7% |
7.3% |
2 |
Michigan |
Blake Corum |
5.46 |
135.4% |
18.5% |
3 |
Ohio State |
Chip Trayanum |
4.28 |
91.3% |
5.7% |
4 |
Florida State |
Trey Benson |
6.52 |
92.5% |
-5.6% |
5 |
Washington |
Dillon Johnson |
5.01 |
110.0% |
0.7% |
6 |
Oklahoma |
Marcus Major |
3.95 |
87.6% |
-5.2% |
7 |
Texas |
Jonathon Brooks |
6.41 |
143.4% |
6.1% |
8 |
Oregon |
Bucky Irving |
7.58 |
105.2% |
-1.3% |
9 |
Alabama |
Jase McClellan |
4.61 |
98.8% |
7.4% |
10 |
Penn State |
Nick Singleton |
4.18 |
90.5% |
-8.8% |
11 |
Oregon State |
Damien Martinez |
6.38 |
114.5% |
-2.7% |
12 |
Ole Miss |
Quinshon Judkins |
4.40 |
70.3% |
-8.1% |
13 |
Utah |
Ja'Quinden Jackson |
5.18 |
126.3% |
10.5% |
14 |
Notre Dame |
Audric Estime |
6.25 |
125.2% |
3.4% |
15 |
LSU |
Logan Diggs |
5.82 |
97.8% |
4.7% |
16 |
Missouri |
Cody Schrader |
5.68 |
151.8% |
5.8% |
17 |
North Carolina |
Omarion Hampton |
5.88 |
179.6% |
16.3% |
18 |
Louisville |
Jawhar Jordan |
7.43 |
166.1% |
-0.1% |
19 |
Air Force |
John Lee Eldridge |
9.59 |
152.5% |
-2.8% |
20 |
Duke |
Jordan Waters |
5.96 |
124.2% |
2.9% |
21 |
Tennessee |
Jaylen Wright |
6.51 |
103.7% |
-0.9% |
22 |
Tulane |
Makhi Hughes |
5.25 |
115.8% |
26.5% |
23 |
UCLA |
Carson Steele |
5.30 |
94.5% |
14.0% |
24 |
USC |
MarShawn Lloyd |
8.01 |
122.5% |
-6.7% |
25 |
James Madison |
Kaelon Black |
4.69 |
98.2% |
-16.0% |