Looks pretty good!

Arbitrary threshold-based analysis is terrible, but just for fun, here are all of the running backs drafted since 2019 (the first year that players with box count-adjusted numbers were eligible) who finished their college careers with numbers at least as good as McBride’s in three or more of these categories (I originally wanted to include all players who matched McBride in at least four categories, but the only guy who qualified was Kenneth Walker), in alphabetical order:

For a guy who often doesn’t sniff the top-10 of many’s rookie running back rankings, that’s not a bad list. Love almost won a Heisman before injuries derailed his career, Gainwell and Henderson have both been rotational contributors for championship-contending NFL teams during their rookie contracts, and everybody else on this list put up 1000 or more scrimmage yards as first-year pros.

To further hammer the point home that McBride should be taken seriously, here’s proof that his high-level efficiency was not a one- (or even two-) year aberration:

But what do these numbers actually say about McBride’s ability as a ballcarrier? For my money, they at least suggest that he could be the total package. He was listed at 5’11 and 215 pounds (perfectly fine measurables for an NFL lead back) last year at UAB, the rate at which he broke tackles in college was higher than for any non-Javonte Williams runner in nearly a decade (as far as I can tell, PFF began tracking missed tackles forced in 2014), he was excellent at ripping off chunk gains and elite at navigating the open field once he got there (even accounting for the fact that he played against a lower level of competition in Conference USA, as his career mark in Breakaway Conversion Rate is the highest among all Group of 5 running backs drafted since 2010), he maximized the situation he was in by far exceeding the per-carry output and the down-to-down consistency of the other backs on his team, and he did all of that while facing defensive fronts that were loaded up with the sole intention of stopping him.

Those analytical results also jive with the things that I see on tape from McBride. The UAB Blazer boasts the third-highest vision grade on zone concepts among backs in this class that I’ve charted a sizable amount of runs from (100+), he owns the highest vision grade on gap concepts among the same group, and also has the highest overall grades on both zone and gap concepts, with traits like decisiveness and the ability to manipulate linebackers as some of his key strengths. While he’s not incredibly elusive, my film-charting backs up PFF’s findings that McBride is a tough guy to bring down. His rate of powering through tackle attempts is third-highest among 2023 runners who I’ve studied extensively so far (behind Zach Charbonnet and Zach Evans), and he has the single highest marks I’ve seen against would-be tacklers on the defensive line and in the secondary.

As with all of these metrics, level of competition caveats apply, but McBride did run for 61 yards on 13 carries (4.69 yards per) as a sophomore against the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs, a legendary defense that gave up the second-fewest rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt of any team in the country and that produced five first-round Draft picks last offseason alone. The only guys who ran for more yards against Georgia in a single game that year were Brian Robinson and Dameon Pierce, who both started in the NFL as rookies, and nobody was as efficient on as many carries against that defense as McBride was (among those who averaged fewer yards per carry against the ‘21 Georgia defense than McBride did are Robinson, Kevin Harris, Jordan Mason, Tank Bigsby, Tyler Badie, Hassan Haskins, Christopher Rodriguez Jr., Raheim Sanders, MarShawn Lloyd, Jarquez Hunter, Donovan Edwards, Blake Corum, Will Shipley, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all of whom had an advantage over McBride by running behind Power 5 offensive lines).

The only running backs who got the better of the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs are DeWayne McBride and Dameon Pierce.

McBride also made an appearance on Bruce Feldman’s Freak List prior to last season, where Feldman reveals that the running back cleans 345 pounds, benches 385, squats 550, and runs the 40-yard dash in the low-4.5s. How those workout numbers translate to Combine testing is yet to be seen, but McBride is certainly not one of these small school heroes who just doesn’t belong in the NFL due to a lack of physical gifts.

As far as I can tell, the biggest beef you could have with this guy is the fumbling thing. McBride coughed the ball up five times in 2022, tied with three other backs for the most in the country, and he did the same thing four more times in his other season as a lead runner in 2021. McBride fumbled on 1.86% of his career carries, a rate that would land around the top-30 (in a bad way) among all college backs in either of the last two seasons. NFL coaches aren’t going to put up with that, especially from a guy who probably won’t contribute on passing downs at all (McBride ended his college career with just five receptions), but ball-security is one of the more correctable issues that a runner could enter his professional career with.

In a class with a lot of potential NFL contributors who we shouldn’t necessarily expect to be three-down starters, I see no reason why McBride’s flaws should knock him so far down our rankings relative to other players whose strengths and on-field results don’t hold a candle to his. You’re not allowed to be surprised when he’s flashing ability as the Khalil Herbert to someone’s David Montgomery in the next couple years.