End-of-Season CFB Awards: Group of Five
End-of-Season CFB Awards: Group of Five
Dec 11, 2023

I’m a person with no credentials and less cachet, but I’m here to tell you which college running backs should have won awards and been named to all-conference teams. I don’t know exactly how each selection committee or whatever entity purports to choose their respective honorees, but my impression is that the actual awards are handed out mostly on the basis of yards and touchdowns. Because I care about slightly different things than those groups do, my selection criteria will be slightly different. I’m not going to fully systematize my process for handing out these hypothetical awards, but I’m interested in much more specific measures of how players perform on the field will give approximately equal weight to production and efficiency (while consulting the eye test as a tie-breaker).

For each conference, we’ll name first- and second-team performers in addition to honorable mention, all-freshman, and Running Back of the Year honorees. With the Power Five conferences and the national awards coming on Wednesday, we’ll cover the Group of Five conferences today:

American

First Team: Blake Watson, Memphis (RB of the Year); Makhi Hughes, Tulane

Second Team: Dean Connors, Rice; Jermaine Brown Jr., UAB

Honorable Mention: Ayo Adeyi, North Texas

All-Freshman: Makhi Hughes, Tulane

Watson is the clear choice for the top running back in the AAC this year. He’s one of just three backs in the conference to eclipse the 1000-yard rushing mark, and his nearly 500 receiving yards put him easily atop the conference’s scrimmage yardage leaderboard despite having played in one fewer game than the second-place Hughes. Watson has also been efficient: His raw yards per carry mark of 5.90 ranks fourth among 100+ carry backs in the conference, and his 118.2% Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating is right at the historical median for NFL prospects.

Hughes is this conference’s best running back prospect and its second-best overall performer of 2023. He led the league in rushing while posting a 65th-percentile BAE Rating and the second-highest Relative Success Rate among all 100+ carry runners in the country, and his current 24.2% Dominator Rating ranks second among redshirt sophomores in the conference’s history (behind only Kenneth Gainwell).

The next three backs in this conference were tough to choose just two second-teamers from. Adeyi ran for 1000 yards while leading the American with over seven yards per carry and ranking fourth in the league (among backs with 50+ carries) with a 54.3% Success Rate, but Connors’ and Brown’s multi-faceted production put them over the top for me. They each caught over 40 passes during the regular season, with Brown adding 12 rushing touchdowns and Connors posting a ridiculous 190.8% BAE Rating.

Conference USA

First Team: Quinton Cooley, Liberty (RB of the Year); Malik Jackson, Jacksonville State

Second Team: Deion Hankins, UTEP; Monte Watkins, New Mexico State

Honorable Mention: Star Thomas, New Mexico State

All-Freshman: Keith Willis, Louisiana Tech

Cooley is the obvious choice for CUSA back of the year considering that he’s the only guy in the league (outside his own quarterback) to rush for even 900 yards, as his 1322 currently sits at ninth among all FBS runners. He also ranks sixth in the country and first in the conference with 16 rushing touchdowns, and his efficiency numbers have been solid. He has positive marks in both BAE Rating and RSR to go with over six yards per carry and a raw Success Rate above the 60% threshold.

There is a massive dropoff to the next-best running backs in this conference, as it's probably lighter on talent at the position than any other league in the country. Illustrative of that is the fact that Jackson -- the guy I chose for the other first-team spot -- ranks 53rd in the nation in total rushing yards. I don’t want to completely disparage, however, as Jackson’s 6.43 rushing average is the conference’s highest (among 100+ carry backs). His BAE Rating of 138.1% is an 86th-percentile mark.

Hankins earned his way to a second-team selection largely by finishing third in CUSA in rushing yards, but he also worked for his production in a way no other back in the league did for theirs. The 3.72 yards he averaged after contact and the 0.32 missed tackles he forced on a per-carry basis both rank first among conference backs with at least 55 attempts.

Watkins has only touched the ball 64 times this season, but he’s turned those limited opportunities into 640 yards and three scores. The former four-star recruit is easily this league’s most dynamic runner, and he has the raw efficiency, box-adjusted, and through-contact numbers to show for it despite some severe underutilization. He is draft-eligible this spring.

Thomas earns the honorable mention over Torrance Burgess. He finished fifth in the conference in rushing on just 103 attempts, along the way posting a combination of Success Rate and per-carry average that rivals all but Cooley’s among CUSA runners. His 20 receptions only rank third in the league.

No freshman in this conference finished higher in yards from scrimmage than Willis at 21st. The 206-pounder missed time with injury but scored seven touchdowns in his seven games, including two against a Liberty defense that Pro Football Focus rates as the country’s 24th-best against the run.

MAC

First Team: Peny Boone, Toledo (RB of the Year); Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan

Second Team: Lorenzo Lingard, Akron; Terion Stewart, Bowling Green

Honorable Mention: Ta’Ron Keith, Bowling Green

All-Freshman: Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan

The MAC is absolutely stacked with quality running backs, so much so that I left two 1000-yard rushers -- Antario Brown and Marquez Cooper -- out of these all-conference selections entirely. I did not leave out Boone, who currently ranks sixth in the country in rushing yards and has probably the best efficiency profile of any runner at the FBS level. His raw marks in yards per carry and Success Rate each rank first among Group of Five backs with 100+ carries, and he has excellent through-contact and box count-adjusted numbers to go with them.

Buckley is a redshirt freshman who finished fourth in this conference in yards from scrimmage, but I chose him over Brown and Cooper for the second first-team spot because of his more well-rounded efficiency profile. He is the only of the three of them with above-average numbers in both yards per carry and Success Rate, and his 135.3% BAE Rating is easily tops among them and ranks in the 84th percentile among historical draft prospects.

Lingard earned a second-team selection by contributing well as both a runner and receiver. His 38-368-2 line as a pass-catcher helped him to a league-leading 33.7% Dominator Rating, and while he averaged just 4.48 yards per carry behind an offensive line that PFF rates as the country’s seventh-worst run-blocking unit, Lingard churned out positive outcomes at an above-average rate and posted elite marks in both BAE Rating and RSR.

Stewart earned his spot by being the league’s second-best pure runner. His volume numbers are subdued by his sharing touches with another talented player and missing multiple games with injury, but his raw efficiency, team-relative, and especially through-contact marks are among the best of any 100+ carry runner in the conference. His yards after contact per attempt average ranks first among all Group of Five backs, while his rate of missed tackles forced per attempt ranks first in the entire country.

Keith’s 457 receiving yards rank third among nationwide runners, and his excellent per-carry numbers show him to be a legitimate three-down back. His yards after contact and missed tackles forced marks trail only Stewart’s within the MAC, and he’s averaging more yards per attempt than any non-Boone back in the conference.

Mountain West

First Team: Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (RB of the Year); Kairee Robinson, San Jose State

Second Team: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, New Mexico; Malik Sherrod, Fresno State

Honorable Mention: Quali Conley, San Jose State

All-Freshman: Jambres Dubar, Boise State

Jeanty has been one of the best running backs in the country this year. Despite having missed two games, he ranks second behind only Ollie Gordon in yards from scrimmage, with nearly 1300 on the ground to go with a nation-leading 552 through the air. He also has quality efficiency numbers, good through-contact numbers, and one of the highest Dominator Ratings posted by any sophomore in the last fifteen years.

The margin between Robinson and Croskey-Merritt for the second first-team spot is razor thin, but I gave the nod to Robinson. He has run for over 1100 yards with league-leading marks in both yards per carry and Success Rate (among backs with 100+ attempts), he has nearly 200 receiving yards, and he has gained 4.37 yards after contact per attempt.

Croskey-Merritt has nearly 1200 yards of his own with raw efficiency and through-contact numbers that are almost as good as Robinson’s. His 141.1% BAE Rating and 14.8% RSR are the best combination in the entire Mountain West.

Sherrod’s 36 are more receptions than any non-Jeanty back in the conference has, he returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Boise State, he has the fourth-most scrimmage yards in the conference, and he ranks second and third in that league in BAE Rating and RSR, respectively.

Despite sharing a backfield with Robinson, Conley ranks sixth in the conference in rushing and fifth in scrimmage yards. His 246 receiving yards trail only Jeanty among Mountain West runners, and he posted excellent through-contact numbers in addition to respectable team-relative marks.

Jai’Den Thomas and his dozen touchdowns deserve a mention, but I gave the all-freshman nod to Dubar and his excellent per-touch performance. Somewhere in between Jeanty and George Holani trading blow-up games in the Boise State backfield, Dubar managed to run for 335 yards, and he did so while posting a 100.7% BAE Rating, a 5.0% RSR, and marks above the 70th percentile in both yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt.

Sun Belt

First Team: Kimani Vidal, Troy (RB of the Year); Ismail Mahdi, Texas State

Second Team: Marcus Carroll, Georgia State; La’Damian Webb, South Alabama

Honorable Mention: Rasheen Ali, Marshall

All-Freshman: Kanye Roberts, Appalachian State

The Sun Belt might be more stacked with good runners than the MAC is. Vidal is the country’s second-leading rusher and has more than a 200-yard lead over the second-place rusher in this conference, he’s averaging nearly six yards per carry and succeeding on over half of his attempts, has good through-contact numbers, and has posted positive marks in both BAE Rating and RSR. With almost 200 receiving yards, Vidal has the most well-rounded profile and the best mix between overall production and rushing efficiency of any running back in the Sun Belt.

The next five guys in this conference were very difficult to select and order four honorees from, and Frank Gore Jr. could just as easily have been named first-team all-conference as he was ultimately left out of these selections entirely (and the explosive Kadarius Calloway would have garnered legitimate consideration if he had played more than eight games). Mahdi ended up in my second first-team slot because of his quality efficiency profile. He ranks third in the conference in rushing and first in yards per carry among its twelve most productive ball-carriers, while his league-leading 276 receiving yards have been posted on the eighth-most receptions in the Sun Belt.

Carroll has had a great season of his own. He ranks second in the conference in each of rushing, receiving, and scrimmage yards, and while the 4.96-yard per-carry average he posted while running behind the country’s 100th-best and the Sun Belt’s ninth-best run-blocking unit (according to PFF) isn’t great, his 226.3% BAE Rating and 22.9% RSR are both ridiculous (though it’s also worth pointing out that the other backs on the team have carried the ball a combined 42 times all season).

La’Damian Webb beat out Gore and Ali for the last second-team slot despite ranking behind both of them in rushing and scrimmage yards because he has the most touchdowns in the Sun Belt and boasts a better combination of team-relative efficiency and through-contact numbers than either of those other backs can claim. His 127.1% BAE Rating and average of 0.27 missed tackles forced per attempt land in the 72nd and 78th percentiles, respectively, among historical draft prospects.

Ali has the fifth-most rushing, receiving, and scrimmage yards in the conference (and has played fewer games than anyone who ranks ahead of him) in addition to probably the second-best team-relative efficiency profile of anyone in it. His BAE Rating and RSR both rank above the 80th percentile.

Roberts has gained more than 700 yards from scrimmage and scored seven touchdowns despite the presence of an established starter and former 1000-yard rusher in Nate Noel ahead of him on the depth chart, and he has averaged nearly a yard more and succeeded on more than 6% greater of his rushing attempts than Noel has. The 3.81 yards he has averaged after contact on a per-carry basis is the most for any 100+ carry runner in the league.

Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.