End-of-Season CFB Awards: Power Five and the Doak Walker
End-of-Season CFB Awards: Power Five and the Doak Walker
Dec 13, 2023

I’m a person with no credentials and less cachet, but I’m here to tell you which college running backs should have won awards and been named to all-conference teams. I don’t know exactly how each selection committee or whatever entity purports to choose their respective honorees, but my impression is that the actual awards are handed out mostly on the basis of yards and touchdowns. Because I care about slightly different things than those groups do, my selection criteria will be slightly different. I’m not going to fully systematize my process for handing out these hypothetical awards, but I’m interested in much more specific measures of how players perform on the field will give approximately equal weight to production and efficiency (while consulting the eye test as a tie-breaker).

For each conference, we’ll name first- and second-team performers in addition to honorable mention, all-freshman, and Running Back of the Year honorees. We’ll do the same thing on a national scale, including the handing out of a Doak Walker Award. We went over the entire Group of Five conferences on Monday, and we will once again go alphabetically through the Power Five leagues:

ACC

First Team: Omarion Hampton, North Carolina (RB of the Year); Jawhar Jordan, Louisville

Second Team: LeQuint Allen, Syracuse; Jamal Haynes, Georgia Tech

Honorable Mention: Phil Mafah, Clemson

All-Freshman: Mark Fletcher, Miami

Hampton has a decent claim to being the best running back in the entire country this year. He easily leads this conference in rushing yards and scrimmage yards and has posted excellent raw efficiency, through-contact, and team-relative efficiency numbers. I took a look at some of his film in this recent article.

Jordan is this league’s second-most productive back by rushing and scrimmage yards and its most productive back by receiving yards, and his raw efficiency profile rivals Hampton’s. He has averaged over six yards per carry while posting a 5.7% RSR.

Allen ended his first regular season as a starter with over 1000 rushing yards and nearly 40 receptions, and while heavy defensive fronts and PFF’s sixth-worst run-blocking offensive line (among Power Five squads) subdued his raw efficiency a bit, he succeeded on over half his attempts and posted very solid team-relative numbers.

Prior to championship weekend, Haynes ranked fourth in this conference in both rushing yards and scrimmage yards, and he finished second among 100+ attempt backs in the conference with 5.97 yards per carry. His combination of BAE Rating and RSR rivals that of any non-Hampton back in that group.

Mafah finished the regular season with the fifth-most rushing yards in the conference and excellent through-contact numbers, while his positive team-relative efficiency is particularly impressive in light of his sharing carries with Will Shipley. He narrowly beat out Trey Benson for this spot.

Fletcher has easily been the ACC’s best freshman running back this season. He gained 575 yards from scrimmage and scored five touchdowns in only nine games, including multiple 100-yard rushing performances against in-conference competition. The excellent per-carry numbers posted by Henry Parrish Jr. mean that Fletcher’s team-relative marks don’t look great, but he did produce above-average raw figures in both yards per carry and Success Rate.

Big Ten

First Team: TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (RB of the Year); Blake Corum, Michigan

Second Team: Braelon Allen, Wisconsin; Kyle Monangai, Rutgers

Honorable Mention: Kaytron Allen, Penn State

All-Freshman: Darius Taylor, Minnesota

Henderson has been fantastic this season. He missed a few games but is averaging more rushing, receiving, and scrimmage yards per game than any other back in this conference, and has raw marks in yards per carry and Success Rate that each land above the 80th-percentile among nationwide runners. His team-relative numbers are also elite.

Corum has scored more touchdowns than any other player in the country, and while his yardage totals and efficiency numbers have taken a dip this year, he’s produced very well in context. He finished the regular season with the third-most rushing yards and scrimmage yards in the Big Ten, and posted a 61.1% Success Rate despite running into the heaviest defensive fronts of any high-volume runner in the nation. His 4.72-yard per-carry average is solid in light of that context, and Corum’s team-relative numbers show him to be easily outperforming his situational baseline.

Allen finished the regular season fourth in the Big Ten in receptions and second in the league in rushing yards, scrimmage yards, and total touchdowns. He has posted quality efficiency marks (though with a slight boom/bust lean) and has yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt numbers that are both above the 80th percentile.

Monangai is this conference’s leader in both rushing and yards from scrimmage. He posted excellent marks in both BAE Rating and RSR to go with solid raw efficiency and 70th-percentile-or-better through-contact numbers.

While Nick Singleton gains 4.31 yards per carry and succeeds on 46.9% of his rushing attempts, Allen has been going for 5.23 and producing positive outcomes on 58.8% of his own carries. He finished the regular season ranked seventh and fifth in the conference in scrimmage and rushing yards, respectively.

Taylor played in only five games, but he ran for 529 yards and scored five touchdowns in a three-game span and ranks first and third among 100+ carry runners in the Big Ten in yards per carry and Success Rate. His 42.9% Dominator Rating is the highest for any Power Five freshman since at least 2009.

Big 12

First Team: Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State (RB of the Year); Jonathon Brooks, Texas

Second Team: RJ Harvey, UCF; Devin Neal, Kansas

Honorable Mention: Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech

All-Freshman: Jahiem White, West Virginia

The Big 12 has probably the best crop of running back talent of any conference in the country. Gordon is the national leader in rushing and scrimmage yards and ranks second among Power Five backs in both touchdowns and receptions. His 161.2% BAE Rating is ridiculous, and his nation-leading Dominator Rating of 42.6% is the second-highest mark among Big 12 sophomores since at least 2009 (behind only Deuce Vaughn).

Brooks’ season ended after only ten games, but he averaged the most receiving yards and the second-most yards from scrimmage on a per-game basis among backs in the conference. Despite his having run into the heaviest defensive fronts of any high-volume runner in the league, his raw, through-contact, and team-relative efficiency numbers are all excellent.

Harvey is the Big 12’s second-most productive running back in terms of both yards and touchdowns, and his efficiency profile has no holes. He averages over six yards per carry, has 75th-percentile-or-better marks in both yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt, and boasts well above-baseline figures in BAE Rating and RSR.

Neal’s 6.61-yard per-carry average makes him this conference’s most efficient 100+ attempt back. He sits at fourth on the Big 12 leaderboard in yards from scrimmage and fifth in rushing, while Brooks is the only high-volume runner in the league who has gained more yards after contact on a per-attempt basis than Neal’s 3.72.

It was tough to leave DJ Giddens’ dual-threat profile out of these selections, but the bigger Brooks’ status as the fourth-leading rusher in the country put him over the top. He’s been the classic two-down bruiser this season: his 0.34 missed tackles forced per attempt is a 92nd-percentile mark, he owns a 10.7% RSR that ranks fourth among Power Five backs with 100+ carries, and his 70.2% BAE Rating belies per-carry efficiency over the five-yard mark.

Gavin Sawchuk, Abu Sama, CJ Baxter, Parker Jenkins, and LJ Martin represent a stacked group of freshman runners, but White has been this conference’s best first-year back. He finished the regular season ranked ninth in the Big 12 in yards from scrimmage despite having missed a game, and his combination of 8.16 yards per carry and a 66.7% Success Rate makes for easily the most impressive efficiency profile of any 50+ carry runner in the conference. His through-contact numbers are fantastic, his team-relative marks are ridiculous, and he has caught long touchdowns on two of his three receptions.

Pac-12

First Team: Bucky Irving, Oregon (RB of the Year); Damien Martinez, Oregon State

Second Team: Jaydn Ott, Cal; Jonah Coleman, Arizona

Honorable Mention: Dillon Johnson, Washington

All-Freshman: Dylan Edwards, Colorado

Not by a huge margin, but Irving was probably the top back in the Pac-12 this year. He has run for over 1000 yards and leads the conference in yards from scrimmage, fueled largely by his trump card of a nation-leading 53 receptions for nearly 400 yards. His team-relative efficiency numbers don’t look great, but he has a) been playing alongside an uber efficient Jordan James, b) posted excellent through-contact numbers that include a rate of 0.37 missed tackles forced per attempt, and c) produced raw marks of over six yards per carry and a 61.8% Success Rate.

Martinez, Ott, Coleman, and Johnson were difficult to choose between. I opted for Martinez in the second first-team slot because he has the most well-rounded efficiency profile of any high-volume runner in the Pac-12. He finished the regular season second in the conference in rushing while averaging over six yards per carry and succeeding on a ridiculous 71.0% of his attempts, he has above-baseline team-relative marks, and his numbers in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt are each above the 80th percentile.

Ott led this conference in rushing yards, scrimmage yards, touchdowns, and PPR points per game. His raw efficiency numbers don’t compare well to those of most of the other high-volume runners in the league, but he has the Pac-12’s second-highest Dominator Rating and a 117.3% BAE Rating.

Coleman has performed like this conference’s best running back on a per-touch basis this season. He finished fifth in yards from scrimmage while posting a 61.3% Success Rate and the second-highest per-carry average of any 100+ carry runner in the Pac-12, and his 11.9 yards per reception is the highest mark for any 20+ reception back in the conference. Coleman’s 159.8% BAE Rating is fantastic, and he’s the only runner in the country who averaged more than five yards after contact per attempt on a 100+ carry workload.

It hurt to leave MarShawn Lloyd out of the honorable mention spot, but Johnson has simply had a better year. He ranks third in the conference in rushing yards and fourth in it in scrimmage yards, and his 134.6% BAE Rating and 8.5% RSR help to boost an efficiency profile that already has solid raw numbers. He has averaged 136.6 rushing yards and nearly two total touchdowns per game in the home stretch of Washington’s schedule.

By far the most productive freshman in this league was Dylan Edwards, with an impressive 36-299-4 receiving line that contributed to a total of 623 yards from scrimmage. He wasn’t the most efficient rusher in the conference, but he did force 0.27 missed tackles per attempt and post a 101.6% BAE Rating.

SEC

First Team: Cody Schrader, Missouri (RB of the Year); Ray Davis, Kentucky

Second Team: Jaylen Wright, Tennessee; Jarquez Hunter, Auburn

Honorable Mention: Kendall Milton, Georgia

All-Freshman: Seth Davis, Mississippi State

This is probably the conference where my selections are the least chalky, at least beyond Schrader for the number-one spot. He easily leads the SEC in rushing and scrimmage yards and has the best combination of BAE Rating and RSR among high-volume backs in the conference to go with raw efficiency just below the six-yards-per-carry mark.

Davis has been one of the best all-purpose backs in the country this year. He has over 1000 rushing yards at 5.75 per carry, boasts yards after contact and missed tackles forced per attempt numbers that are each above the 75th percentile, and caught a nation-leading seven touchdowns on 28 receptions and while gaining 328 yards. His low BAE Rating is offset by a 5.0% RSR, and Davis’ 37.4% Dominator Rating ranks second among Power Five backs (behind Ollie Gordon).

Wright is the country’s single most efficient runner, as the 7.43 yards he averages on a per-attempt basis is 0.30 yards higher than the second-place mark (among 100+ carry runners) belonging to MarShawn Lloyd. The worst thing you can say about him is that he’s run against the lightest defensive fronts of any high-volume back in the Power Five conferences (which is true), but Wright’s excellent through-contact and team-relative numbers suggest he deserves a good amount of credit for his ridiculous efficiency. He finished fourth in the SEC in rushing despite only carrying the ball 136 times.

Hunter ended up with really solid numbers after averaging fewer than 50 yards per game through mid-October. He upped his production to 124.5 yards per game during the home stretch, giving him the sixth-most scrimmage yards in the SEC to go along with a 5.92-yard per-carry average and the second-best yards after contact per attempt mark among 100+ attempt runners in the conference.

The honorable mention slot presented me with a bit of a conundrum here. The most prominent man left standing is obviously Quinshon Judkins, who finished the regular season at third on the conference’s rushing yardage leaderboard. At 4.44 yards per carry and with a sub-50% Success Rate (and bad team-relative numbers) despite facing some of the lightest defensive fronts of any high-volume runner in the country, however, it would be more accurate to characterize Judkins as one of the most-heavily used backs in the SEC than as one of its most effective runners this season. In lieu of him, I could go with any one of several decent producers with fine efficiency numbers and (largely) poor team-relative efficiency marks swimming around the edges of the conference’s top-ten scrimmage yards list (like Montrell Johnson, Daijun Edwards, and Jase McClellan). I could also be tempted to honorably mention Le’Veon Moss, who missed several games and left multiple others early with injuries but posted excellent team-relative numbers to go with a league-leading 61.7% Success Rate.

Instead of shoehorning in Judkins as a volume play, attempting to differentiate between the undifferentiable Johnson/Edwards/McClellan group, or plucking Moss from way down the scrimmage yardage leaderboards, I decided to go with the SEC’s most effective all-around runner. Among conference backs with 100+ attempts, Milton’s 6.13-yard per-carry average ranks second, his 60.2% Success Rate ranks second, and his 3.83 YAC average ranks sixth. He’s one of just four runners in that group (along with Schrader, Wright, and Mario Anderson) with above-baseline marks in both BAE Rating and RSR, and he has scored more touchdowns than all but four backs in the conference.

Davis earned this all-freshman nod by virtue of his efficient rushing. He had four games with at least six yards per carry on at least five attempts, and he finished the year with 375 scrimmage yards, a 6.03-yard per-carry average, and a 127.0% BAE Rating.

Now let’s hand out national honors. I’ll list players in alphabetical order where necessary, and I’ve decided to name both a redshirt freshman and a true freshman for the final category:

Doak Walker Award

Semifinalists: Peny Boone, Toledo; Jonathon Brooks, Texas; Audric Estime, Notre Dame; Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State; Omarion Hampton, North Carolina; TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State; Ashton Jeanty, Boise State; Cody Schrader, Missouri; Kimani Vidal, Troy; Blake Watson, Memphis

Quick shoutout to Audric Estime, who is not affiliated with any conference but has played like an all-conference Power Five runner this season. He ranks eighth in the country in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns and has excellent efficiency numbers across the board.

Finalists: Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State; Omarion Hampton, North Carolina; Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Winner: Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State

All-America

First Team: Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State; Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

Second Team: Ashton Jeanty, Boise State; Cody Schrader, Missouri

Honorable Mention: TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

All-Freshman: Makhi Hughes, Tulane (redshirt); Jahiem White, West Virginia (true)

Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.