Today’s article will be a relatively quick one, but I wanted to put on wax my thoughts on this running back class before weigh-ins and Speed Scores cause everyone to lose their minds. I have sorted into tiers 31 players in this group, ranging from those who I think are likely to be fantasy-relevant producers at the next level to those who I would be a bit surprised to see make any statistical impact in the NFL at all. Note that players are not ranked within the tiers, but rather listed alphabetically, and this for a couple reasons. First, this is a rather homogenous class with little to separate the RB3 from the RB7 or the RB9 from the RB14, so intra-tier distinctions don’t mean a whole lot to me, especially right now. I say “especially right now” because – and this is the second reason – we’re still early in the evaluation process, with much information yet to be gained from athletic testing, on-field workouts, continued film study, and more. If my rankings look the same in mid-April as they do today, I’ve probably done something very wrong. Finally and most importantly, along with the people who pay me for access to both written analysis and player rankings, there exist those who pay me for access to only one or the other (and I appreciate them all). I view these tiers as quick-and-dirty but sufficient delineation of the running back class as I currently see it, while those interested in my full, more specified rankings can find them here.

Let’s start with the bottom of this class (or at least with the bottom of the guys who are notable enough to warrant mention, which in itself makes them at least somewhat impressive prospects) and move up, starting with:

This foursome just doesn’t really stand out to me at this point in the process. Edwards is undersized and was never particularly good either on the ground or through the air over four years at Georgia, McClellan was perhaps the least impressive starting running back Alabama has had in the last fifteen years in 2023, and Shirden is a 195-pounder who caught only 25 passes during a three-year career at the FCS level. Vidal is probably the most likely tier-jumper from this group, as he was legitimately productive for two years in the Sun Belt while maintaining a consistent presence in the Troy passing game and always outperforming his backfield teammates from a rushing efficiency perspective. His numbers simply don’t pop out to me as something we wouldn’t expect to see from multiple Group of Five backs in any given offseason, though.

Ali has a similar profile as Vidal, but just a little better in most facets. Guerendo is a strange prospect, boasting good size and some evidence of three-down chops (here’s a reference article filled with receiving data for all of these backs) to go along with a three-year run of holding his own efficiency-wise in backfields led by quality collegiate runners at both Wisconsin and Louisville. He also has some of the most extensive special teams experience of any back in this class, giving him a potential boost in real-life rosterability relative to some of the other fringey prospects.

Holani was decently productive at a quality Boise State program, and while he ceded significant work to Ashton Jeanty in recent seasons, his team-relative efficiency numbers maintained respectability. He also has a fairly robust pass-catching profile that seems to be going under the radar.

Johnson is here because he strikes me as average in almost every area, though I would have a hard time identifying any real strength in his game (at least through a numbers-based lens). Jordan is undersized but pretty dynamic out in space, while Milton looks very Zamir White-ish to me. He was never very productive at Georgia, but he was a consistent and efficient two-down thumper for both of his final two seasons. I’m excited to see how he tests.

Like Guerendo, Robinson is a career backup with lots of special teams experience, a sneaky-good receiving profile, and solid rushing efficiency numbers (albeit on a very small sample). His getting invited to the Combine was a pleasant surprise. Schrader is kinda like Johnson: certainly an above-average college running back, but without any difference-making elements immediately apparent in his skill-set. Steele belongs to the same general archetype as Milton.

Tracy is interesting in that he’s a converted wide receiver with receiving skills that could set him up as a third-down option in the NFL. He played running back for just one of his six college seasons, but his rushing efficiency numbers were not bad at all. Last but not least in this group is Williams, who I loved last offseason. He belongs to the same branch of the running back family tree as do guys like Javonte Williams and Dameon Pierce, but he was terrible in 2023. If there’s a legitimate excuse for that poor performance (and I have no idea if there is), then I’m buying the dip.

I recently made the case for Bailey as a sleeper in this class, and he was excellent as a big part of backfields at both Louisiana and TCU in recent seasons. Davis is a do-it-all dawg who I’ve been a fan of for like five years now, and he also was productive and effective at multiple college programs. Gore is undersized, but this recent article outlines why I think he might be one of the under-the-radar best runners in this class.

Watson and Wiley are two guys I haven’t done a ton of work on yet, but they both possess really nice receiving resumés.

If running backs were cars, Davis would be the same model as Milton or Steele but with heated seating and a more extensive collection of other bells and whistles. Irving is ridiculously quick and has a nice pass-catching profile. I’m still working on his film, but he looks like the second coming of Tarik Cohen so far.

I haven’t gotten to Laube’s film at all and his data profile is rather limited by virtue of his having played at the FCS level, but people seem to like him for good reasons: solid size, lots of success as a kick returner, and – especially important – dynamic and varied receiving skill. I reserve the right to either hop off the bandwagon or officially join the fan club at a later date.

Shipley is an enigma in this class. Some people love him, some people think he’s a complete JAG, and while his 2023 numbers kinda point to the latter being true, I’m bought in enough to the idea that a depressingly mediocre Clemson offense kept him from reaching his five-star potential. His rushing efficiency profile was much better prior to last season, and his receiving skill-set looks one of the best in this class. A good Combine (which he seems very capable of) would do a lot to assuage concerns about the legitimacy of his talent.

I published an article on Wright just yesterday. The Tennessee offense makes his evaluation a little tough, but he’s clearly one of the most explosive backs in this class.

Differentiating between this group is not easy, as – depending on the situations they end up in – I could realistically see any one of them having produced as this class’ RB1 in three or four years’ time. The case for Allen is obvious: he’s big, athletic, young, and hard to tackle. It seems to be the cool thing to not like him these days, but his movement skills are not normal for a back of his size.

I recently wrote about Benson (see: 1, 2), who pairs much of Wright’s explosiveness with dynamic pass-catching chops and somehow manages to fit all that into a workhorse frame. His vision and decision-making at the line of scrimmage do leave something to be desired.

Brooks is one of the smoothest runners in this class and has an especially good feel for zone concepts. Like Benson, he also boasts some sneaky versatility in the passing game. The biggest question for him is health.

I’m a massive fan of Corum, and those concerned with either his 2023 performance or his long-term outlook as it relates to his meniscus injury should read these articles: 1, 2. In my opinion, he’s the best runner in this class.

Estime has some similarities to Allen as a big back with more grace than is typically afforded to humans his size, and I also think he has legitimate three-down potential.

Finally, Lloyd is an explosive and elusive runner with solid size and varied experience as a downfield receiving threat. My working comp for him is D’Andre Swift.