It was not a great start for this series last week, as we only hit on one of five main recommendations and one of two honorable mentions in PrizePicks’ 5x5 flex play contest for the Lions and Chiefs game. From ashes rises the phoenix, however, so we’re back on the horse this week, but this time over on Underdog. PrizePicks never got back to me about a promo code (fuck ‘em), so I’m gonna go ahead and operate as a free agent. Maybe I’ll do Underdog every week, maybe I’ll hit some traditional sports books here and there, maybe I’ll crawl back to PrizePicks every once in a while, who knows. Either way, on to week two.
How this works:
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These recommendations are only hypothetical and should not be construed as actual gambling advice (amirite). “Locks” appearing as part of the title of this article should also not be construed as any sort of guarantee, as I am not a magician, fortune teller, or locksmith but simply a person who had some success making these recommendations during one NFL season.
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If it matters to you, please know that I live in Idaho, a state in which online sports gambling is currently illegal, and because I’m not particularly interested in driving 45 minutes to and from the Oregon state border every week, I am not personally placing the bets contained in this article or future iterations of it.
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Recommendations will be for Underdog’s Higher/Lower player prop contests and will include the maximum of five props. If all five hit, those placing the corresponding bets would 10x their entry fee. If four hit, it’s 2.5x. Anything less is a zero. Official rules can be found on Underdog’s app or website.
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As in the videos from last season, I may sometimes offer “honorable mention” recommendations, which essentially amount to the B-team of picks in a given week.
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Because logistics, I am writing this article on Wednesday, and some lines may move between writing and publishing, between publishing and you reading, between you reading and placing bets, etc. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions about new lines if that happens, though I can’t promise I’ll have a strong take.
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If Underdog is offering some sort of discounted promotional prop as part of the TNF slate, I will mention it but not include it as part of my official recommendations because including it would disallow entry into their “Insured” option for the contest that allows for the 2.5x pay-out in the event of hitting only four of five of the recommended props. Including it would necessitate entering their “Standard” contest option in which hitting all five props would result in a 20x prize but any single miss would result in a zero.
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My first three picks will be free and the last two (in addition to any honorable mentions) will be thrown behind the paywall. Non-subscribers can still make use of the recommendations given that Underdog only requires you to choose a minimum of two player props in order to enter their contests, but shout-out to those of you supporting me and this website with a sub. Much appreciated.
Enough nonsense. Here are the week one picks:
The Vikings/Bucs game from last week wasn’t an incredibly high-flying affair, but the Minnesota defense did allow Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go for 66 and 51 receiving yards, respectively, despite Baker Mayfield throwing passes, and that after a year in which they gave up the most receptions, most receiving yards, and second-most fantasy points to wide receivers of any team in the NFL. Basically, this team does not have a good track record against wideouts, and Brown is coming off a rain-soaked slog of a game against New England in which he still managed 11.4 points on seven receptions for 79 yards. He averages 14.3 points and has hit this over in more than half of his 21 total contests as an Eagle, so I like him to get back on track against a sub-standard Vikings secondary.
The Eagles ran just one play from inside the five-yard line against the Patriots and they opted to throw the ball, but last season they were top-five in total plays in that area of the field and chose to run on 80% of them, giving them easily the most goalline rushing attempts of any team in the league. Hurts was second in the league in individual goalline rushing attempts in 2022, which helped him score a rushing touchdown in 65% of his games. The Vikings also happen to have given up more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks last season than all but eight other teams, but betting on Hurts to score on the ground is just a decent play on the odds no matter who their opponent is. The fact that the Eagles will be rocking with a group of running backs that collectively touched the ball just four times last week tonight is more icing on the cake.
Cousins has averaged just 16.6 fantasy points per game in his last 18 contests (which includes last week and all of last season), hit the over on this line in just eight of those games, and will be on the road and facing a defense that gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. There’s also the whole primetime thing.
I just don’t think this guy is very good. Mattison has averaged just 3.69 yards per carry since the beginning of the 2021 season, managed only 3.09 last week, and will be facing an Eagles defense that ranked 11th in terms of rushing yards given up to running backs last season. If he runs the ball 13 times against Philadelphia (his rushing attempts line as of this writing was 12.5), he’ll need to average 3.92 yards per carry in order to hit this over, and if he only gets 12 carries, he’ll need to average 4.25. Neither of those marks would represent even league-average efficiency, but they’d also both be better than how he’s performed in recent games. The Vikings also just lost to a Tampa Bay team that probably isn’t very good and are now seven-point dogs on the road to a squad that, yes, had a disappointing loss in a week-one slop fest, but a) went to the Super Bowl last year, and b) carries an implied point total of 28 into the matchup. Game script could phase Mattison out enough to keep even his carry totals from putting him in position to hit this over.
I thought about listing the below TJ Hockenson line as my final “official” recommendation, but those not wanting to triple-down on the Vikings under party tonight may find solace in rooting for Addison, who had 61 yards in his debut and will be facing an Eagles secondary that will be down a starting corner with James Bradberry dealing with a concussion. You can never be shocked when Justin Jefferson gets his, regardless of the matchup, but this seems like a good spot for Addison with an exploitable line. Even the sallow husk of Adam Thielen averaged 42.1 receiving yards and hit the over on this mark in more than half of his games while operating as Minnesota’s WR2 last year (and, yes, I know KJ Osborn ran more routes than Addison did last week, but Addison was clearly the better player and earned a greater share of the team’s targets and air yards).
I actually really like Hockenson, but this line feels slightly high to me. He was 15 yards shy of this over last week despite catching the ball eight times, the Eagles defense was slightly above-average against tight ends last season, and while Hockenson did average 51.9 yards per game as a Viking in 2022, he hit the over on this line in just four of his ten games with the team.
The same logic applies here as with AJ Brown’s fantasy points prop, as Smith has averaged 68.6 receiving yards in his last 21 games as an Eagle while hitting the over on this line in more than half of those contests.
This is a promotional line offered by Underdog tonight that, as I said in this article’s introduction, precludes you from entering the “Insured” version of this contest if you want to include it in your parlay. It’s obviously as close to a lock as you can get, though, barring an Aaron Rodgers-type situation.