We had a bit of a bounce-back with a 3-for-5 (or 4-for-7 if you can’t the honorable mentions) performance in the Eagles/Vikings game, and everybody knows that improvement in sports wagering is linear, so we’re surely due for a cash-out tonight. Because fuck PrizePicks, we’re back on Underdog for the week:
How this works:
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These recommendations are only hypothetical and should not be construed as actual gambling advice (amirite). “Locks” appearing as part of the title of this article should also not be construed as any sort of guarantee, as I am not a magician, fortune teller, or locksmith but simply a person who had some success making these recommendations during one NFL season.
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If it matters to you, please know that I live in Idaho, a state in which online sports gambling is currently illegal, and because I’m not particularly interested in driving 45 minutes to and from the Oregon state border every week, I am not personally placing the bets contained in this article or future iterations of it.
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Recommendations will be for Underdog’s Higher/Lower player prop contests and will include the maximum of five props. If all five hit, those placing the corresponding bets would 10x their entry fee. If four hit, it’s 2.5x. Anything less is a zero. Official rules can be found on Underdog’s app or website.
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As in the videos from last season, I may sometimes offer “honorable mention” recommendations, which essentially amount to the B-team of picks in a given week.
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Because logistics, I am writing this article on Wednesday, and some lines may move between writing and publishing, between publishing and you reading, between you reading and placing bets, etc. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions about new lines if that happens, though I can’t promise I’ll have a strong take.
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If Underdog is offering some sort of discounted promotional prop as part of the TNF slate, I will mention it but not include it as part of my official recommendations because including it would disallow entry into their “Insured” option for the contest that allows for the 2.5x pay-out in the event of hitting only four of five of the recommended props. Including it would necessitate entering their “Standard” contest option in which hitting all five props would result in a 20x prize but any single miss would result in a zero.
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My first three picks will be free and the last two (in addition to any honorable mentions) will be thrown behind the paywall. Non-subscribers can still make use of the recommendations given that Underdog only requires you to choose a minimum of two player props in order to enter their contests, but shout-out to those of you supporting me and this website with a sub. Much appreciated.
Enough nonsense. Here are the picks for Giants versus 49ers:
McCaffrey is averaging 78.3 rushing yards per game with the 49ers and has hit the over on this line in exactly half of those contests, but he’s on a heater this season and is facing a defense that relinquished the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs last season, gave up five yards per carry to Tony Pollard in the season opener, and just allowed James Conner to go for 106. Sportsbooks are also expecting the Niners to win this one handily, as they’re currently favored by 10 and should therefore be in position to bleed clock with the ground game. It would perhaps be wise for them to let Elijah Mitchell absorb touches in that event (I like the over on his 28.5 line in this same category), but they’re winning games and McCaffrey has played 92% of the snaps so far this season anyway.
Jones has not historically been a particularly turnover-prone player, but he’s thrown three picks in just two games this season, is playing behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus rates as the seventh-worst pass-blocking unit in the league and that will be down two starters in guard Ben Bredeson and All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas, is facing a defense that finished with the second-most picks in the league last year and has already nabbed two interceptions in each game this year, and will likely be forced to throw the ball more than the Giants would typically prefer given likely game script and the absence of Saquon Barkley.
The 49ers gave up the fewest rushing yards to running backs of any defense in the NFL in 2022, and their combination of high-octane offense and smothering defense has resulted in the second-lowest total given up to running backs so far this season. They haven’t faced great rushing teams to date, but they’ve given up just 89 combined yards on 23 total carries from Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and Kyren Williams, and it’s not as if the Giants are in any position to shred these guys on the ground given the state of their offensive line. We also don’t actually know what sort of role Breida will have tonight -- I’d assume he’s the lead guy, but he’s a 195-pound and 28-year old runner who has had more than his fair share of struggles handling workloads and staying healthy throughout his career (he’s played fewer than a third of snaps in eight out of 20 career starts, and fewer than half of them in 16 of those starts), Gary Brightwell had 34 carries as New York’s RB3 to Breida’s 51 last season, and we might even see rookie Eric Gray sprinkled in as well.
For all their defensive prowess, the 49ers have given up the fourth-most yardage to wide receivers this season after allowing the fifth-most a year ago. Garbage time can be a beautiful thing, and considering he’s the team’s second-leading target-getter, has an aDOT of 15.2, and has averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game going back to last season (while hitting the over on this line in 11 of 17 games), Slayton seems like as good a bet as anyone on this offense to benefit from it enough to give us even the mediocre level of production required to eclipse this mark through the air.
Samuel has hit the over on this mark in both of his games this season even while Brock Purdy has fallen short of the 20.0 completions that Underdog has his line set at tonight in each of the first two weeks, and opposing WR1s have eclipsed it in both contests against the Giants (New York actually allowed both Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson to hit it). That said, I love it less if Brandon Aiyuk ends up being a go, in which case I might pivot to the following honorable mention.
As I pointed out above, Purdy hasn’t hit the over on this mark yet this season, and he actually hasn’t hit it in any of his last five games (and has done so in just two of ten career games). The Giants defense is also being run on more than thrown against (relatively speaking) so far this season, having faced the tenth-most rushing attempts but the fifth-fewest passing attempts, and there’s little reason to think game script will be conducive to a pass-happy approach for San Francisco in this one.
Most of the same logic applies here as for the Slayton line, except for the fact that Hodgins is lower on the pecking order and isn’t being targeted as far downfield. Still, though, he’s facing a defense that gives up a lot of yards to wide receivers, he averages 43.4 receiving yards per game going back to last season, and he’s hit the over on this mark in nine of his 13 contests in that time-frame.
This is another one of those promo lines. Seems like good odds.