We went 4-1 last week with our only miss coming on a Darius Slayton receiving yards over that fell three yards short, so some favorable karmic retribution is certainly on tap for week four. We’re back on Underdog.
How this works:
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These recommendations are only hypothetical and should not be construed as actual gambling advice (amirite). “Locks” appearing as part of the title of this article should also not be construed as any sort of guarantee, as I am not a magician, fortune teller, or locksmith but simply a person who had some success making these recommendations during one NFL season.
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If it matters to you, please know that I live in Idaho, a state in which online sports gambling is currently illegal, and because I’m not particularly interested in driving 45 minutes to and from the Oregon state border every week, I am not personally placing the bets contained in this article or future iterations of it.
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Recommendations will be for Underdog’s Higher/Lower player prop contests and will include the maximum of five props. If all five hit, those placing the corresponding bets would 10x their entry fee. If four hit, it’s 2.5x. Anything less is a zero. Official rules can be found on Underdog’s app or website.
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As in the videos from last season, I may sometimes offer “honorable mention” recommendations, which essentially amount to the B-team of picks in a given week.
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Because logistics, I am writing this article on Wednesday, and some lines may move between writing and publishing, between publishing and you reading, between you reading and placing bets, etc. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions about new lines if that happens, though I can’t promise I’ll have a strong take. If lines get taken down in that meantime, my advice would be to pivot to the first honorable mention listed.
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If Underdog is offering some sort of discounted promotional prop as part of the TNF slate, I will mention it but not include it as part of my official recommendations because including it would disallow entry into their “Insured” option for the contest that allows for the 2.5x pay-out in the event of hitting only four of five of the recommended props. Including it would necessitate entering their “Standard” contest option in which hitting all five props would result in a 20x prize but any single miss would result in a zero.
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My first three picks will be free and the last two (in addition to any honorable mentions) will be thrown behind the paywall. Non-subscribers can still make use of the recommendations given that Underdog only requires you to choose a minimum of two player props in order to enter their contests, but shout-out to those of you supporting me and this website with a sub. Much appreciated.
Enough nonsense. Here are the picks for Lions versus Packers:
I recommended the over on Patrick Mahomes’ rushing yards line against the Lions in week one (which hit) for basically the same reason I’m doing so for Love in week four: Detroit gave up the most ground yards to quarterbacks of any team in the league last season, and they’re currently allowing the 11th most in the same category this season. Love is also averaging 24.7 rushing yards per game in 2023 and has hit this line in two out of his three games (as well as in three out of his four career starts). He averages nearly five rushing attempts per start and averages more than five yards per attempt on non-kneels (and the Lions are favored to win, so we might not even have to worry about a kneel-down subtracting from Love’s total).
LaPorta smashed my expectations in week one and has been dominant thus far in his rookie season, averaging six receptions on 7.3 targets per game and hitting the over on this line in every contest. The Packers were pretty stingy against tight ends in 2022 (top-three in receptions allowed) but rank just 14th in the same category so far this year, including solid outings given up to Cole Kmet and Jonnu Smith. LaPorta is simply better than those guys and should once again be very involved in the Lions passing game. I also like the over on his 2.5 first downs line.
Goff’s home/away splits are remarkable: he’s thrown 27 touchdowns in 11 home games with the Lions to just seven in nine away games (with more zero-touchdown away games than those with even one score). Add to that history the possible (likely?) return of goal-line back David Montgomery to the lineup, as well as the fact that the Packers haven’t given up more than a single passing touchdown in any of their last five games (and in only seven of their last 18). I also like the under on Goff’s 23.5 completions line.
St. Brown has hit the over on this line in just one game so far this season, one time in his last six games, and just six times in his last 18 games. The Packers are also currently allowing the seventh-fewest receptions and fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers after ranking 10th and 12th, respectively, in those categories last season. They currently rank 11th in passing first downs allowed with just 10.3 per game after ranking third with just 9.6 per game given up in 2022. St. Brown is awesome, but he gained just under 30% of the Lions’ receiving first downs a year ago and is at 30.8% so far this season.
At the time I’m writing this on Wednesday, Christian Watson and Aaron Jones have not yet been ruled a go for Thursday night but do seem to be trending in the right direction. Assuming they both play, the lines for these ancillary Green Bay receivers might move quite a bit, but as things stand now I like the receiving yards overs for both Musgrave and Jayden Reed (at 37.5), in addition to the over on Dontayvion Wicks’ receptions line of 1.5. Musgrave is currently averaging 41.3 receiving yards per game and has hit this line in two of his three games.
This is a promotional line that is almost sure to hit.
I’m not sure how to assess at which point I’d still take the over on Musgrave’s receiving yards line in the event that Watson and Jones play considering that we have a sample of zero games with all three of them active, but I think Savage’s tackles line is a decent pivot. He’s averaging 8.0 tackles and has hit this line in each game so far this season, and the Packers will be without their second-leading returning tackler from last year with inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell out with an ankle injury on Thursday.