Big woof on last Thursday night as the Packers’ complete inability to either block anybody or stop a rushing attempt (in addition to a Luke Musgrave concussion) caused the whole house of cards to come crumbling down, but I’ve restacked them and am positive that they are newly impervious to any such shenanigans in tonight’s scintillating matchup between winless squads.
How this works:
-
These recommendations are only hypothetical and should not be construed as actual gambling advice (amirite). “Locks” appearing as part of the title of this article should also not be construed as any sort of guarantee, as I am not a magician, fortune teller, or locksmith but simply a person who had some success making these recommendations during one NFL season.
-
If it matters to you, please know that I live in Idaho, a state in which online sports gambling is currently illegal, and because I’m not particularly interested in driving 45 minutes to and from the Oregon state border every week, I am not personally placing the bets contained in this article or future iterations of it.
-
Recommendations will be for Underdog’s Higher/Lower player prop contests and will include the maximum of five props. If all five hit, those placing the corresponding bets would 10x their entry fee. If four hit, it’s 2.5x. Anything less is a zero. Official rules can be found on Underdog’s app or website.
-
As in the videos from last season, I may sometimes offer “honorable mention” recommendations, which essentially amount to the B-team of picks in a given week.
-
Because logistics, I am writing this article on Wednesday, and some lines may move between writing and publishing, between publishing and you reading, between you reading and placing bets, etc. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions about new lines if that happens, though I can’t promise I’ll have a strong take. If lines get taken down in that meantime, my advice would be to pivot to the first honorable mention listed.
-
If Underdog is offering some sort of discounted promotional prop as part of the TNF slate, I will mention it but not include it as part of my official recommendations because including it would disallow entry into their “Insured” option for the contest that allows for the 2.5x pay-out in the event of hitting only four of five of the recommended props. Including it would necessitate entering their “Standard” contest option in which hitting all five props would result in a 20x prize but any single miss would result in a zero.
-
My first three picks will be free and the last two (in addition to any honorable mentions) will be thrown behind the paywall. Non-subscribers can still make use of the recommendations given that Underdog only requires you to choose a minimum of two player props in order to enter their contests, but shout-out to those of you supporting me and this website with a sub. Much appreciated.
Enough nonsense. Here are the picks for Bears versus Commanders:
Robinson is currently averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game, has hit this mark in all but one game this season, and is facing a defense that gave up the second-most points per game to running backs in 2022 and is doing the same thing so far in 2023. Each of Aaron Jones, Rachaad White, Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jaleel McLaughlin have gone over this line against the Bears this season. The Commanders are also favored by 5.5 points in this game, so any consideration to game-script represents a point in Robinson’s favor.
Those same game-script considerations also mean that we should expect Chicago’s offense to be playing from behind this evening, which is obviously positive for their pass-catchers. Moore doesn’t even need those factors for this to be a nice play, however, as he’s gone over this line in all three of his last games and is averaging nearly three points per game above this mark so far this season, while the Washington defense has given up the sixth-most yards and sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2023.
Howell has gone under this line in just one game so far, but the Commanders have either trailed at the half or gone into overtime in every game this season while having played against three top-10 scoring offenses in the Broncos, Bills, and Eagles. Needless to say the Bears do not represent such a formidable opponent, even given that they had a nice game against Denver’s league-worst defense last week (and the Broncos would still be the worst defense by points per game and the 8th-worst defense by yards per game if we completely ignore the Dolphins game). This week, Howell is favored by nearly a touchdown and gets a defense that has “held” opposing quarterbacks below this line in two of four games (mostly by virtue of their opponents not needing to throw the ball to remain competitive) while -- as I mentioned above -- letting running backs have their way with them, so I anticipate fewer pass attempts than have been necessary in recent weeks.
For many of the same reasons I laid out in the previous blurb, I also like the under on this first downs line for McLaurin. He’s gone under it in three of his four games so far this year (hitting it only in the overtime game against the Eagles), went under it in 11 of his 17 games in 2022, and (at least at the time of this writing) seems likely to still be contending with target competition from both Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson after each of those ancillary receiving options hit the injury report earlier this week. If McLaurin’s 26.8% share of the Commanders’ 41 passing first downs maintains itself into tonight’s matchup, they would need to throw for three more first downs against the Bears than they have in any game so far this year, a 25% improvement over their best such performance thus far.
Fields is currently averaging more than one interception per game while having thrown at least one in every game this season. While the Washington defense has just two picks, they’ve faced a gauntlet of quality quarterbacks and should be playing with a pass-inviting lead for the first time this season tonight against the Bears.