TreVeyon Henderson is here to save the day (and other lessons from week nine in CFB)
TreVeyon Henderson is here to save the day (and other lessons from week nine in CFB)
Nov 01, 2023

There were tons of big performances in college football this week, resulting in the biggest version of this article yet, both in terms of word count and amount of players covered. Enjoy:

TreVeyon Henderson seems to be back.

It’s getting tough to avoid turning this article into an Ollie Gordon hype piece every week, but TreVeyon Henderson had his best game of the season against Wisconsin, so let’s talk about him. He hadn’t played in more than a month before suiting up against the Badgers, but he turned 24 carries into 162 yards and a score, added four receptions for 45 yards, and looked explosive as hell while doing it:

You could make a decent argument that this game was the best of Henderson’s entire career, as his 207 yards from scrimmage was the most he’d ever posted against a Power Five opponent and the second-most he’d ever posted, period, behind only the 275 yards he put up on Tulsa back in September of his freshman season. That performance helped his Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating jump above the 150% mark and brought his Relative Success Rate up to a very respectable 4.9% (the latter being a big deal, in my opinion, as he’s never finished a season with a positive RSR). If this healthful resurgence is a sign of things to come, it will mean good things for the 2024 running back class, which I think is stocked with solid players but is clearly lacking in elite talent at the top. I’m a bit skeptical that Henderson provides that, but finishing the season out strong could mean garnering the highest draft capital of any player in the class and ending up as the de facto RB1 in rookie drafts.

Big games from several big name 2024 guys.

Braelon Allen was held in check -- he ran for 50 yards on ten attempts -- by the Buckeye defense in a game in which Wisconsin managed just 259 yards of total offense, but several other draft-eligible runners joined Henderson by posting gaudy stat-lines in week nine.

Trey Benson had an Allen-like rushing line of 10-for-55 against Wake Forest, but he scored a touchdown on the ground and caught four passes for 100 yards, including this 80-yard house call on a screen:

It’s been a fairly forgettable season for Benson overall, as he has just an 18.3% Dominator Rating and has averaged just 0.04 yards per carry greater than the collective other Florida State backs thus far. It doesn’t seem like injuries have been his issue, but as with Henderson, Benson was highly thought of entering the year and could do a lot to repair his draft stock with a solid late-season surge on a championship-contending squad.

For the first time in a single game this season, Lincoln Riley gave MarShawn Lloyd the ball 20 times on Saturday, and the running back rewarded him with 115 rushing yards, 72 receiving yards, and two touchdowns that proved vital to a 50-49 victory over Cal. Lloyd is an explosive play waiting to happen, with the third-highest 10-yard run rate of any Power Five back in the country (minimum 45 attempts) at 22.4%. Given what the other USC backs have collectively produced, Lloyd’s Chunk Rate+ sits at 6.2% and contributes to a to-date career mark of 6.0% that lands in the 88th percentile among historical prospects.

Devin Neal has quickly become the favorite draft-eligible runner of pretty much every dynasty fantasy account on Twitter, and not for nothing. The 25-112-1 line he posted during an historic victory over then-sixth-ranked Oklahoma included the game-winning touchdown and brings his season-long BAE Rating to a solid 117.7%. In the same game, backup Daniel Hishaw contributed 51 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries of his own.

Jonathon Brooks notched his sixth straight game of 100 or more yards from scrimmage this Saturday against BYU, with 98 yards and a score on the ground to go with 40 yards on four receptions. He paced all running backs nationally with 17 receptions during October despite playing in only three of the four weeks in that month and having entered it with just five catches in his previous five games. Three-down utility would be huge for Brooks, as his skill-set as a runner is already very impressive:

Brooks will face Kansas State next week, whose coaching staff almost treated DJ Giddens like the all-purpose stud that he is in this weekend’s blowout victory over Houston. The redshirt sophomore gained 96 yards and scored two touchdowns on 13 carries while also adding 25 yards on two receptions, giving him his first game of 15 or more touches since October 6th. Treshaun Ward, a weekly thorn in Giddens’ side, touched the ball 13 times and gained only 47 yards against the Cougars.

Audric Estime had his highest scrimmage-yardage output in more than a month against Pitt on Saturday, churning out 114 yards and scoring three touchdowns on 19 carries while adding two receptions for another 16 yards. His 12 rushing scores trail only Blake Corum’s 13 among Power Five backs, and he, Ollie Gordon, and Jonathon Brooks are the only runners in the country who have at least 130 attempts on the year and are averaging more than six yards per carry.

Bucky Irving rounds out our group of notable 2024 backs who had big games this week with a 119-scrimmage yard performance against Utah that included this touchdown and an incredible effort on this near-touchdown:

Despite his small stature, Irving is nearly untackleable and ranks fourth among Power Five runners with at least 100 carries in yards after contact per attempt.

Small school recap:

We had some huge performances from Group of Five running backs this week, none bigger than what Blake Watson posted in a 45-42 victory over North Texas. He joined Trey Benson as one of two runners on the week to go for 100 receiving yards, a mark he reached on five receptions, but Watson also turned 17 carries into 169 yards and two long touchdowns against the Mean Green:

He’s sixth in the country in yards from scrimmage and leads all running backs with 34 receptions on the year.

On the other side of that matchup, Ayo Adeyi turned 10 carries into 104 yards.

The next-best week nine game from a small school runner belongs to Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 247 yards and two scores on 24 attempts versus Appalachian State. He’s been a tough player for me to figure out, as he entered the season with career marks of 144.8% and 7.1% in BAE Rating and RSR, respectively, but has gained nearly 75% of his total rushing yards in just three games while averaging just 2.52 yards per carry across his other five appearances in 2023. His rushing efficiency numbers have cratered through the course of that inconsistency, as his season-long marks in the above metrics currently sit at 84.6% and -3.9%, respectively. Is he good? Is he bad? You could make a decent case either way.

Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams finished just behind Gore Jr. in rushing with 234 yards and three touchdowns on 34 caries against Army this week. He’s a fifth-year guy who entered the season with a career average of just 3.55 yards per carry, so he’s probably not a legitimate NFL prospect, but becoming a college fantasy legend is a decent consolation prize.

The last of the 200-yards-from-scrimmage gainers from week nine (at least among non-Power Five backs) is Marcus Carroll, who gained all of his 208 yards and scored both of his touchdowns on the ground against Georgia Southern. He is one of two running backs nationally with over 1000 rushing yards so far this season (along with -- you guessed it -- Ollie Gordon).

Three weeks after his last big game, Ismail Mahdi got back on track with a 128-yard rushing performance on 20 attempts versus Troy that also saw him add 32 yards on four receptions. He is currently ninth in the country in yards per carry, eighth in the country in yards from scrimmage, and -- as a dynamic kick returner -- first in the country in all-purpose yards. Troy’s Kimani Vidal entered the game with 951 rushing yards on the season but managed just 43 on 18 carries versus the Bobcats.

The guy who remains atop the yards from scrimmage leaderboard is Ashton Jeanty, and that despite the fact that he left Boise State’s victory over Wyoming early with a lower body injury that head coach Andy Avalos says is likely not “anything that’s going to keep him out too long.” He managed 53 yards on six carries before exiting the game, marking his only appearance without a reception this season and opening the door for fifth-year man George Holani to see 20 carries in his own return from an injury suffered in the Washington game back on September 2nd.

Jalen Buckley posted his first 100-yard rushing game since September 23rd this weekend, with 138 yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts versus Eastern Michigan. It’s been an up-and-down season for him from a production standpoint, perhaps due in part to the fact that he’s pretty mediocre through contact despite playing in a relatively weak conference: his 2.99 yards after contact average ranks 129th in the country, and his missed tackles forced per attempt average of 0.19 ranks 150th.

Makhi Hughes has been on a tear in AAC play, as his 23-153 line against Rice on Saturday brings his streak of 120-yard rushing games to four, all against in-conference opponents. His RSR number remains above the 20% mark, and he’s now the league’s leading rusher. There’s a chance that I’m forgetting someone, but the season that Hughes is putting together has a decent argument for being the best true freshman campaign in the country this year.

Victor Rosa was unavailable for UConn’s matchup against Boston College after leaving last week’s game with an injury, and Camryn Edwards once again stepped up in his absence. After a 164-yard, two-touchdown performance against South Florida, Edwards put up 124 yards from scrimmage and scored another touchdown this weekend.

Deion Hankins is a fifth-year guy from UTEP, which is hardly the starting point for a solid NFL profile, but he does weigh 215 pounds and own marks of 123.9% and 4.1% in BAE Rating and RSR, respectively, after notching his second straight 100-yard rushing performance with a 15-117-1 line against Sam Houston.

Rashad Amos’ team-relative marks are not nearly as good as Hankins’, but he did turn 21 carries into 163 yards against Ohio this weekend.

Nate Noel was supposed to be good to go for Saturday’s matchup with Southern Mississippi after missing the previous week’s Old Dominion game with an ankle injury, but he ended up only touching the ball three times and ultimately ceding most of the backfield work to Kanye Roberts, who turned Noel’s pain into champagne by running for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries in what was a victory over Brett Favre’s alma mater (some people graduate but be still stupid).

Arkansas State’s Zak Wallace brought his season-long per-carry average from 3.27 to a whopping 3.94 by turning 18 carries into 118 yards and two scores against UL-Monroe.

Jacob Kibodi is in his seventh year of college and just ran for 100 yards in a game for the first time since September 23rd, which is kind of like when the 21-year old weed dealer goes to his old high school’s homecoming dance with his sophomore girlfriend, but without the problematic implications, so maybe it’s more like when the 21-year old weed dealer simply attends his old high school’s homecoming football game and hangs out in the student section. Either way, Kibodi put up 23-119-1 against South Alabama, is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on the season, and has BAE Rating and RSR marks that are both above the 90th percentile.

La’Damian Webb posted his third straight game of at least 100 scrimmage yards with a 16-96-1 rushing line against Louisiana that was supplemented by another 14 yards on three receptions. He has a 125.6% BAE Rating on 119 attempts but is somehow only the sixth-leading rusher in the Sun Belt, a conference stacked with running back talent.

The guy right behind on that list is Jalen White of Georgia Southern, who ran for 116 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against Georgia State this weekend. He weighs 215 pounds and is having an excellent season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry for the third year in a row and posting BAE Rating and RSR marks of 137.7% and 9.7%, respectively.

Nearly SMU’s entire backfield is made up of ACC and SEC transfer running backs with four-star recruiting pedigree, and former Alabama runner Camar Wheaton was the most impressive of those players against Tulsa this week, with a 9-80-2 rushing line (that included this explosive touchdown) to go with a 25-yard reception. On the season, Wheaton has been less efficient but more consistent than the Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson combination.

Non-draft-eligible Power Five runners:

Finally we can talk about Ollie Gordon, who is ridiculous. The 292 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns he produced against Cincinnati mean he’s now scored more than 45 PPR points in each of his last three games, and he’s looked good doing it:

I’m not sure who the best running back prospect in college football is right now, but Gordon is clearly the best college running back in the country right now. He’s first in the nation in rushing yards, is averaging more yards per carry than anybody within 324 yards of his total, has a higher BAE Rating than any Power Five runner within 619 yards of his total, and is averaging more yards after contact per attempt -- 4.67 -- than Jase McClellan, Kaytron Allen, or Nick Singleton are averaging overall. He has more rushing yards in his last two games -- 553 -- than Trey Benson, Will Shipley, or TreVeyon Henderson have all season.

Perhaps the next-most impressive sophomore running back in the country has been Omarion Hampton, who I almost highlighted at the top of this article before ultimately deciding to show some love to TreVeyon Henderson. He certainly deserves his own shine, though, with 462 rushing yards in his last three games following a 153-yard, two-touchdown performance on 29 carries this Saturday (that also included four receptions for 41 yards).

The reason I opted to highlight Henderson over Hampton is that I’m not really at a point where I feel confident in my Hampton eval. He played well as a freshman and is smashing this season, with more rushing yards than any non-Gordon Power Five runner in the country and elite BAE Rating and RSR marks to legitimize that production, but despite the hard running displayed in the above tweet, I’m having a hard time getting past the fact that his current rate of missed tackles forced per attempt is a 48th-percentile mark of 0.21 (he was at 0.17 last year). Also, he’s six feet tall, weighs 220 pounds, and reminds me of a young Joe Mixon when I watch his weekly highlight cut-ups, but almost in a frustrating way given that he doesn’t strike me as having the same kind of bouncy and elastic athleticism that Mixon showed at Oklahoma. I’m both open to and hopeful of being wrong on this front, though, because Hampton without these concerns would be a strong contender for RB1 in the 2025 class. Offseason film study will be important for fully crystallizing my opinion of his game.

The guys who most people still have ahead of Hampton and Gordon are Nick Singleton and Quinshon Judkins, who are both in the midst of down seasons. Singleton has yet to run for more than even 80 yards in a single game this year, and he most recently produced just 50 yards on 15 carries against Indiana at the same time that backfield mate and fellow sophomore Kaytron Allen ran for 81 on his 18 attempts. Singleton added 31 yards on five receptions, but with a missed tackles forced per attempt mark of 0.13 (his freshman rate was 0.22) to go with a -9.4% RSR, it’s getting more and more difficult to look past his struggles and simply default to calling him a stud by virtue of explosiveness alone. Allen has been held back by a poor Penn State offense as well, but he’s averaging 0.52 yards per carry greater than Singleton while succeeding on 10.8% more of his total carries.

Judkins actually has worse team-relative efficiency marks than Singleton does (and without the excuse of having to contend with another high-end talent in the backfield like Singleton has), but a recent stretch of strong performances has boosted his season-long production and raw efficiency numbers into respectability. The most recent game in that stretch was a 17-124-2 line he dropped on Vanderbilt, giving him three 100-yard rushing games in Ole Miss’ last four contests and bringing his BAE Rating up to a scintillating 77.3% and his seasonal RYOE per attempt average (according to Jerrick Backoustool over at campus2canton.com) to -0.09.

Jaydn Ott is one sophomore running back who is having a good year. His receiving production has taken a nosedive after he caught 45 passes as a freshman, but he’s third in the Pac-12 in rushing after going for 152 yards and two scores on 21 attempts versus USC, including this long touchdown run:

West Virginia’s CJ Donaldson ran for 121 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against UCF this Saturday, marking his first game with over 66 yards or at least four yards per carry since mid-September. True freshman Jaheim White went 9-85-1 in the game as well. He’s 5’7 and 192 pounds but is averaging 7.94 yards per carry on the season.

Others worth mentioning:

Ray Davis had a rare down game, posting his lowest yardage total and per-carry average of the season in a loss to Tennessee that saw him go just 16-42-1 on the ground while adding three catches for 28 yards.

With Marcus Major and his 3.9-yard per-carry average unavailable for the Kansas game, it was the Tawee Walker show in the Sooner backfield. Walker is a 216-pound junior who had only 17 carries last season after rushing for 875 yards as a freshman at Palomar College, but he played well against the Jayhawks, going for 146 yards and a score on 23 carries. At 5’9, he’s built like a tank and can rumble a little bit:

Whether Major is healthy or not, it would probably be wise for Oklahoma to give Walker and sophomore Gavin Sawchuk more opportunities going forward.

In this week’s NC State game, Phil Mafah turned 16 attempts into 84 yards and two touchdowns while Will Shipley produced 41 yards on eight touches before leaving the game after a brutal hit to the neck. Shipley is in concussion protocol but seems to have been cleared of any neck-related injury concerns.

Daijun Edwards continues to be a rock solid caretaker of the Georgia backfield, most recently running for 96 yards and two scores on 15 attempts in a win over Florida. He’s averaged 5.85 yards per carry despite facing 6.95 defenders in the box on his average rushing attempt, heavier fronts than those seen by 88% of nation-wide backs.

The Georgia Tech backfield had white a day against North Carolina, as fifth-year man Dontae Smith went 22-178-1 while third-year back Jamal Haynes produced 80 yards and a score on his 14 carries.

Another productive backfield from this weekend was Arizona State, where DeCarlos Brooks ran for 67 yards and three touchdowns and Cam Skattebo had 121 and a single score, each on 11 attempts. Brooks transferred from Cal after Jaydn Ott established himself atop that depth chart, but he’s been the more efficient half of the Sun Devil running back room across the four games he’s been healthy this season.

Jawhar Jordan continued his fantastic season with a 163-yard, two-touchdown outing on 21 attempts versus Duke. He’s seventh among Power Five backs in total rushing yards, fourth among the same group in per-carry average, and third in BAE Rating.

With Darius Taylor and Zach Evans out once again, third-year runner and converted defensive back Jordan Nubin stepped into Minnesota’s RB1 chair and ran for 204 yards and two touchdowns on 40 carries (!!) in Saturday’s win over Michigan State. It seemingly does not matter who the Gophers line up at running back, as each of Taylor, Evans, and now Nubin have produced 85-yard rushing outings this season.

I wrote last week that Jarquez Hunter should consider returning to school in 2024, but he followed up his 145-yards-from-scrimmage performance against Ole Miss with a 170-yard game against Mississippi State this week, so maybe I should keep his name out my fucking mouth (his efficiency numbers still aren’t very good though).

TJ Harden ran ahead of Carson Steele in UCLA’s win over Colorado, turning his 20 carries into 78 yards and a score (along with a 25-yard reception). Steele had 75 yards on 11 of his own attempts in addition to 14 yards and a receiving touchdown on two catches, but he lost two fumbles in the game. I imagine Steele will regain his lead in the backfield going forward, and he now has an above-baseline BAE Rating to go with his 12.0% RSR.

RJ Harvey notched his third straight 100-yard rushing performance with a 14-100 line against West Virginia in a game that also saw him haul in four passes for 30 yards. He’s having a decent season but was much better last year, with a 157.1% BAE Rating that has fallen to 108.0% in 2023.

Kye Robichaux now has two straight 100-yard rushing games after turning 23 carries into 112 yards and two scores against UConn.

I’ve seen some hype for Bhayshul Tuten recently, and I don’t really know what to make of it. He did just run for 118 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts versus Syracuse (a performance that earned him some ridiculous praise from his head coach), but he’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the season and doesn’t have incredible team-relative numbers to offset his poor raw efficiency. On the other hand, he has a sick name, is forcing 0.38 missed tackles per attempt (a 99th-percentile mark), and is running behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus rates as the 113th-best run-blocking unit in the country.

Finally, we have Jaylen Wright, who turned 11 carries into 120 yards and a touchdown against Kentucky this weekend. You can count on that kind of stat-line from Wright in like 70% of ganges, as he’s simply one of the most explosive running backs in college football:

I also believe I’ve been under the impression that he weighs just 200 pounds, but I just checked and he’s listed at 210, which is a massive difference and means he should be taken seriously as an NFL prospect. I’ll have to do some reassessment in light of this revelation.

Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.